With the exception of the period of the UK General Election the biggest political betting markets of the past year have been on Donald Trump. Is he going to survive a full first term? Will he win again in 2020? What will be the year of his actual departure from the White House?
These are obviously going to be linked to how the news media are treating him but even the controversial Michael Wolff book did not take his survival chances below 50%.
A big question is whether he can win again at the next presidential election in 2020? Currently he is just a 28% chance of wining a second term. He has two main obstacles assuming he’s still around then – securing the nomination of his party and then, of course, winning the election. The current second favourite on Betfair is Oprah Winfrey at 7%.
A lot for Trump depends on the mid-term elections this November when big defeats for his party for the Senate and House could change perceptions. The betting at the moment points to the Republicans holding on in the Senate but losing the house If he’s seen as an electoral liability then that could undermine his chances.
On top of that we have the ongoing investigation into the alleged Russian help that he is said to have received at WH2016. It is hard to say how that will go though it continues to be a thorn in his side.
He’s a polarising figure and a turnout driver for both sides. His base, mostly white male working class, is hugely loyal. His opponents are fired up to get rid of him.