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Month: January 2018

Punters have more confidence that Trump will survive but are less convinced that he’ll be re-elected

Punters have more confidence that Trump will survive but are less convinced that he’ll be re-elected

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Trump’s first year in the White House in two betting charts And the November 2018 midterms Thanks yet again to Betdata.Io for their excellent historical and current political betting charts based on actual trades on the Betfair exchange. In money terms all the top politics markets at the moment are US related and my guess is that the following two on the midterms in November, will be the biggest ones of 2018. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

A challenge for Henry Bolton is that he got the job with just 29.9% of the vote

A challenge for Henry Bolton is that he got the job with just 29.9% of the vote

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Leadership elections really need a level of PR/AV or STV So Henry Bolton has decided to ignore the vote no confidence from his executive and try to struggle on taking his case to the members. One of the problems here is represented in the chart above showing the results from September election when he took over the role. As can be seen there were a lot of candidates and he ended up with the job on only 29.9% of votes…

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Surely the reason LAB’s not pulling away in the polls is that Corbyn’s out of line from his voters on Brexit

Surely the reason LAB’s not pulling away in the polls is that Corbyn’s out of line from his voters on Brexit

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Being out of line from LAB most LAB voters spells trouble I am heartbroken to have decided to leave @UKLabour. I am bitterly disappointed Labour are not officially opposing the insanity of #Brexit. I cannot support a pro Brexit party. If we have a general election, I will vote for a #Remain candidate. #WATON #WeAreTheOppositionNow — Mike Wilson ???? #FBPE (@PoetTaxiDriver) January 14, 2018 In the previous post Don Brind raised what is a mystery of current polling – that…

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A woman leader could give LAB the polling breakthrough that it is looking for

A woman leader could give LAB the polling breakthrough that it is looking for

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Don Brind on Corbyn’s successor I was on holiday last week with an old mate who is intensely proud of his northern roots. Born a scouser he made his mark on Yorkshire newspapers before his well-honed shorthand, bulging contacts book and nose for news earned him a transfer to Westminster. He became a popular and respected member of the lobby but decades after his arrival there it still rankles with him that his accent was mocked by a southern, middle…

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Donald Trump’s horizontal jogging with a porn star might see Melania Trump jog on from their marriage

Donald Trump’s horizontal jogging with a porn star might see Melania Trump jog on from their marriage

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Following the recent revelations about Donald Trump paying hush money to the porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about their reputed affair, the marriage of Donald and Melania Trump has come under scrutiny. If you have no ethical or moral qualms about betting on the divorce of a couple then you might be interested in the above betting markets from Paddy Power. The bet on Trump remarrying by the 8th of November this year seems very unappealing, I’m not…

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Rebeller Italia. The next problem coming down the tracks for the EU

Rebeller Italia. The next problem coming down the tracks for the EU

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The EU is already wrestling with Brexit and with a renaissance of illiberalism in Poland and Hungary challenging its long-held views of European values.  What it really doesn’t want is a third front.  Italy seems set to disoblige. Ever since Silvio Berlusconi was ousted at the end of 2011, Italy has been run on a reform platform, first by a technocratic government headed by former European Commissioner Mario Monti, and then for the last five years by the parties of…

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Labour reveals some of its English targets for the next election

Labour reveals some of its English targets for the next election

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All but one of them is outside London Even though we could be four and a half years away from the next general election LAB is clearly getting ready and today it has announced that candidates have been put in place in 24 key targets in England. The seats involved are listed in the table above which include the names of the incumbent Conservative MPs as well as the swings required. This comes from a confident party that did far…

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UKIP: circling the plughole

UKIP: circling the plughole

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The problem is the leader – but could anyone else do better? Revolutions devouring their own creators is hardly a novelty but UKIP are giving a fascinating new take on an old theme. They were never the most disciplined of parties and perhaps that was, for some, part of their attraction. Even so, since their crowning glory with their success in the referendum, they’ve not been so much undisciplined but ungovernable. After Nigel Farage stepped down in September 2016, they’ve…

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