In yesterday’s Independent Arron Banks, the UKIP donor, said he would definitively stand against Douglas Carswell in Clacton at the next general election, so Paddy Power have a market up on which of those two will receive the most votes at the next general election.

If I had to choose I’d go for Carswell to win this bet, because he is very popular in his seat, as evidenced by Carswell holding his seat at the general election unlike the other Con to UKIP defector Mark Reckless who so memorably lost his seat at the general election.

On the Arron Banks side of this bet, his bark seems to be worse than his bite when it comes to Douglas Carswell, last summer Arron Banks accused Douglas Carswell helping the Tories to defeat Nigel Farage in South Thanet, and sent a letter to the police with those allegations. So far that complaint has gone nowhere, as we say in Yorkshire, when it comes to Carswell, Banks is all fart and no follow through.

Additionally it is entirely possible Carswell at the next general election stands as Speaker seeking re-election, which could complicate this market further. All I can think of right now is Sir James Goldsmith’s performance in Putney at the 1997 general election. This market could effectively become a three year interest free loan to Paddy Power, I can think of bets with better odds that pay out a lot sooner than this market, so I’m sitting out this market for all of the above reasons.

It says a lot about UKIP that after the referendum victory instead of enjoying a metaphorical post referendum cigarette instead, like the Roman, I seem to see the River Tiber foaming with much blood.

TSE