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Month: September 2016

Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of his victory

Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of his victory

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Corbyn now a 99% chance on Betfair pic.twitter.com/V8UZaUjMvI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2016 If its tighter than last year then it’ll encourage future challenges According to punters at least there is absolutely no doubt about who will be announced as winner of the LAB leadership contest on Saturday. The controversial incumbent looks set for victory and clearly his supporters will be hoping that his vote share is above or equal to the 59% of 2015. Clearly some of…

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Remember: The only successful CON government by-election defence since 1988 is still subject to an Electoral Commission investigation

Remember: The only successful CON government by-election defence since 1988 is still subject to an Electoral Commission investigation

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All parties are going to be a lot more careful in Witney Partly because far fewer of their MPs have died in office the Tories have not faced many by-elections since returning to power in 2010. They lost to UKIP in Clacton and Rochester but held on in June 2014 in Newark. The latter, quite amazingly, was the first time that the Tories had successfully defended a Westminster by-election while in office since 1988. After their humiliating third place in…

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Betting on WH2016 & Witney plus prospects for a “LD fightback”- all looked at in latest PB/Polling Matters TV Show/ Podcast

Betting on WH2016 & Witney plus prospects for a “LD fightback”- all looked at in latest PB/Polling Matters TV Show/ Podcast

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With the first WH2016 TV debate due to take place next Monday Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley), Matthew Shaddick (@Shadsy) of Ladbrokes, and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi ) look at where the race stands and what the mass of polling is suggesting. In the UK the team look at the LDs who’ve just finished their conference and try to assess the chances of a fightback. With Shadsy on the show there’s a fair amount of focus on the betting particularly on WH2016 and…

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Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?

Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?

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Ordnance Survey Farron’s party is under most pressure to perform Betfair have now got up a Witney market on which party will be the winner excluding the Tories who clearly are red hot favourites to hold onto the seat that Cameron held from GE2001 until a week last Monday. Both the LAB and UKIP will have just gone through leadership elections and both UKIP’s Diana James and, presumably Corbyn will want a good result to stamp their authority on their…

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Labour’s local by-election woes continue

Labour’s local by-election woes continue

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Plasnewydd (Cardiff) result:LDEM: 48.1% (+15.4)LAB: 34.8% (-2.0)PC: 6.8% (-5.3)CON: 4.4% (-1.2)GRN: 3.6% (-9.3)UKIP: 2.4% (+2.4) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 20, 2016 Updated local by-elections gains/losses chart including latest LAB loss overnight pic.twitter.com/kdWuq4UpTF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2016

In safe hands? Whose finger is on the Article 50 button?

In safe hands? Whose finger is on the Article 50 button?

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Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks wonders whether the Royal Prerogative would really suffice “Who? Whom?” Lenin asked.  These are questions that confront the government and Parliament when determining who decides to pull the trigger to leave the EU: who is going to take control and who is going to be dictated to?  We are set for a constitutional power struggle to be fought in the courtroom and the next chapter unfolds next month. John Grisham would doubtless not start…

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What happened when Yvette Cooper made a last minute appeal on behalf of Owen Smith

What happened when Yvette Cooper made a last minute appeal on behalf of Owen Smith

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This isn't even shocking anymore but what horrible abuse for expressing an opinion pic.twitter.com/uOLeXNxWmg — Helena Horton (@horton_official) September 20, 2016 Why is it that some JC backers are such nasty pieces of work? One feature that has characterised this LAB leadership campaign has been the sheer nastiness that we have seen on social media. The above Tweet this afternoon is just the latest example. It seems that female LAB MPs have received more of it and those, like Ruth…

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Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical look at the numbers

Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical look at the numbers

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Perceptions about its size could be greater than the reality I’m only a few years younger than Neil Kinnock so when he tells John Pienaar on Panorama he fears that he may never see another Labour government in his lifetime it’s an “ouch” moment for me. I regularly go in to bat for Kinnock with fans of Tony Blair, especially when they trot out the line “he won three general elections”. My argument is that Blair benefited hugely from the…

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