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Month: September 2016

Terror casts a shadow over the race for the White House

Terror casts a shadow over the race for the White House

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Keiran Pedley looks at how unfolding events in New York and New Jersey might impact the US presidential race. It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election. What is less clear is the impact they will have. The traditional view is that events surrounding national security will favour the Republican candidate. However, given that the Republican…

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Suddenly independence starts to look a much scarier prospect to the Scots. BREXIT could be keeping the union together

Suddenly independence starts to look a much scarier prospect to the Scots. BREXIT could be keeping the union together

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Survation finds big move against Independence in latest Scottish poll Yes 42% (-5)No 48% (+7)Changes from June 28 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2016 It’s not only the oil prices but so much more appears undercertain Survation’s latest Scottish poll, like some other similar surveys, have found that the mood is moving away from independence. The normal response is to blame the oil price but I wonder if it goes deeper than that. BREXIT has added so many new…

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The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remember this from June 2007

The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remember this from June 2007

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Both the Telegraph and Sky wrongly announced that Alan Johnson had won the deputy race Remember June 2007? So many Labour MPs had chickened out of doing other than nominate Brown for leader that there weren’t enough left for another candidate to go on the ballot. The result – the party got what the polling indicated was a leader who was an electoral liability – not someone who could lead them into a fourth successive general election victory. Instead there…

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Whatever you think about Momentum it sure knows how to get media attention

Whatever you think about Momentum it sure knows how to get media attention

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Introducing 'Momentum Kids' To Provide Political Education For Children And Childcare For Parents https://t.co/LkmDILhsf4 via @HuffPostUKPol — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2016 Quite how serious this is we don’t know but it will sure set off a narrative Well done to Paul Waugh of Huff Post for another great political story – this time on a the plan to create Momentum Kids. Reading his article it almost appears like some massive trolling effort which will further focus attention on…

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Analysis: Corbyn has the worst end first year satisfaction ratings of any LAB leader in opposition

Analysis: Corbyn has the worst end first year satisfaction ratings of any LAB leader in opposition

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Brown, who was of course PM, had the largest negative numbers This last week has marked the first anniversary of Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour party and I thought it worth checking the standing of other LAB leaders at this stage. As can been seen from the chart Gordon Brown was doing worse but of those who were in opposition Corbyn’s numbers are the worst. Interestingly the LAB leader with the best ratings was, of course, Tony Blair and he…

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Is George Osborne the answer to Brexit?

Is George Osborne the answer to Brexit?

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Embed from Getty Images   I didn’t think this would be a post I’d ever write. Anyone who’s followed my posts over the last three years will know I’m not exactly George Osborne’s biggest fan. I felt he turned from being a huge asset to the Conservatives in the opposition years into a Chancellor who cynically viewed his voters and supporters as mere chesspieces – only worthy of narrow tactical calculations that might advance his career – and his fellow…

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Why the LDs won’t be too unhappy if Corbyn is re-elected

Why the LDs won’t be too unhappy if Corbyn is re-elected

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Continued splits in LAB could help a rejuvenation of the yellows The LDs are gathering in Brighton for their annual conference which, unlike the coalition years, is barely getting any attention. That’s understandable. Having just 8 MPs and the Tories having a majority means they are not important anymore. The polls suggest they haven’t progressed from the 8% of GE2015 but there’s one glimmer of hope – they are doing remarkably well at a local level. They made the most…

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Trump: grinding his way to victory?

Trump: grinding his way to victory?

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Suddenly his path to the White House is looking a lot clearer The Terminator had nothing on Donald Trump. Relentless, seemingly unstoppable, impervious, unflappable, possessed of a few choice popular catch-phrases, assimilated but still not of this (political) world: the public’s watched in horrified awe as he swept all opposition so far aside. Can Hillary Clinton make an even less plausible Sarah Connor and find the equivalent of a crushing steel press in the form of the electorate? Her health…

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