A very British coup as another shadow cabinet minister resigns, and more are expected

A very British coup as another shadow cabinet minister resigns, and more are expected

What odds on an autumn election with May and Watson leading their parties?

What an interesting few hours where Labour are trying to look even more split than the Tory party, but I do think the plotters inside the ┬áLabour party are doing the right thing, I’ve said many times Jeremy Corbyn will lead Labour to an epochal defeat at a general election, whereas someone vaguely electable might actually defeat the Tories at the next general election. As I speculated last night this appears co-ordinated, with Shadow Health Secretary, Heidi Alexander, quitting this morning, with more expected to follow.

If Allegra Stratton’s tweets are correct, the best option should be to back Tom Watson as next Labour leader at 8/1, my only concern is if there’s an effective unilateral declaration of independence by the Parliamentary Labour Party then Tom Watson won’t be leader of the Labour party, but leader of a new Labour party.

The other impact from these events is that it might change the dynamics of the Tory leadership contest. There’s been a belief that whomever the Tories elect they win a general election against Jeremy Corbyn, so they might choose someone with gravitas and experience. Which doesn’t help Boris Johnson but does help Theresa May, who you can still back at 3/1 as next Tory leader, or you might consider like┬áthe many mistresses of Boris, should you be laying him?

TSE

 

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