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Month: April 2016

Is it now the left who bet with their hearts?

Is it now the left who bet with their hearts?

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It always used to be the received wisdom that rich over-optimistic Tories were responsible for keeping the Conservative price short and their seat spread high. Famously one such Tory lost over £100k in 1997, because of his faith that John Major would not do as badly as he did. But there was little evidence of this effect this time last year; punters seemed to be guided more by opinion polls and by the various models driven by them. The bookmakers and Betfair…

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The final round of Local By-elections before the May 5th elections

The final round of Local By-elections before the May 5th elections

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Menhendiot (Con defence) and Wadebridge West (Con defence) on Cornwall Result of council at last election (2013): Independents 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 8, UKIP 6, Mebyon Kernow 4, Green 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25) Result of wards at last election (2013): Menhendiot Conservative 549 (38%), UKIP 450 (31%), Liberal Democrat 352 (24%), Green 93 (6%) Candidates duly nominated: Charles Boney (Lib Dem), Martin Menear (Lab), Duncan Odgers (UKIP), Richard Sedgley (Green), Phil Seeva (Con)…

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Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

Comments 497 Comments

Worry about the unknown is a great vote driver In the 2010-2015 period I repeatedly suggested that a good guide to the general election outcome was YouGov’s “who is responsible for the cuts” tracker. Throughout the entire five year period Labourwas blamed more than others and so it turned out to be. For the referendum on June 23rd I have been looking around for another possible tracker and believe I have found one. It is featured in the chart above…

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This week’s PB Polling Matters TV Show on BREXIT turnout, Trump and how to spread bet on politics

This week’s PB Polling Matters TV Show on BREXIT turnout, Trump and how to spread bet on politics

Comments 597 Comments

This week Keiran Pedley is on holiday so I took the chair for the first time to host the programme which turned out to be quite lively. Guests were Leo Barasi and Ed Fulton – the US specialist from Sporting Index. I was pleased with the outcome which is, I hope, a good watch. There’s quite a focus on the betting angle with some interesting tips. Thanks for all the position reactions to earlier episodes. UPDATE: The audio podcast version…

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Ahead of EURef the Electoral Commission turns to Facebook to persuade younger people to get on the electoral roll

Ahead of EURef the Electoral Commission turns to Facebook to persuade younger people to get on the electoral roll

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Why reaching young voters is so important for REMAIN which does well amongst the young pic.twitter.com/0DJc0P2CW7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2016 Getting more young people to vote on June 23rd could be decisive Facebook and the Electoral Commission have teamed up to pesuade voters across the UK to register to vote in the May 5th elections as well as EURef on June 23rd. A reminder will be added to the news feed of people eligible to register to…

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Whittingdale: Will he survive or not survive?

Whittingdale: Will he survive or not survive?

Comments 395 Comments

How would you bet? No doubt we will be getting betting markets in the next day or so on whether the culture secretary is going to remain in his job following the revelations that have just come out. Labour has, predictably, gone on the offensive saying that he cannot carry out his role because of what has happened. Number 10 is for the moment staying by their man. Cameron has a reputation for not wanting to be pushed and you…

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The BREXIT Referendum: The advertising industry is under starters orders

The BREXIT Referendum: The advertising industry is under starters orders

Comments 650 Comments

PB’s Roger on the coming battle Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores. They can be pitching for the anti smoking account at the same time as they’re shooting the new Hamlet commercial. Think what would have happened in 1979 if Labour had called the Saatchis first. We wouldn’t have had ‘LABOUR ISN’T WORKING’ and the former Tory Party chairman might now be a Labour peer. So when I heard Adam and Eve/DDB were handling the REMAIN account it struck…

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