Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

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Worry about the unknown is a great vote driver

In the 2010-2015 period I repeatedly suggested that a good guide to the general election outcome was YouGov’s “who is responsible for the cuts” tracker. Throughout the entire five year period Labourwas blamed more than others and so it turned out to be.

For the referendum on June 23rd I have been looking around for another possible tracker and believe I have found one. It is featured in the chart above and is about the risk of leaving the EU.

As we get nearer to the day the IN campaign is going to focus on the risk of Britain taking such a step. We call it Project Fear which of course is what it is.

What’s striking in the subgroup splits in the chart above are the figures for Conservative voters. They split on voting intention to leave by a 3% margin yet on the risk/safe question
there is a 10% lead amongst those who think BREXIT will be risky.

No doubt the newly designated official body for the OUT campaign, Vote Leave, already has advanced plans on how it is going to deal with it. On this, I’d suggest, the referendum outcome will depend.

Mike Smithson

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