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Month: April 2016

Cameron’s biggest EURef error could be diverting from Wilson’s winning 1975 template

Cameron’s biggest EURef error could be diverting from Wilson’s winning 1975 template

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A debut guest post by TC Up to the point of announcing the date of the referendum, Cameron had been following the example set by Harold Wilson.  In 1975 Wilson was faced with a split in his party and cabinet over the European EC question.  To address this problem, Wilson’s response was to have a renegotiation of our terms with the EC and then have a referendum to decide whether we remained or left.  The Wilson cabinet was also allowed…

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New ComRes phone poll has REMAIN retaining its 7% lead

New ComRes phone poll has REMAIN retaining its 7% lead

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But there’s a sharp increase in don’t knows Almost one of the constants of this campaign has been that the Inners are doing a fair bit better with phone polls than online and so the pattern continues tonight. The first phone poll to be carried out wholly in April, by ComRes for the Sun, has REMAIN maintaining its 7% lead – a gap which is very much in line with the other phone polls that we saw at the start…

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The punters at Betfair think Remain have this in the bag

The punters at Betfair think Remain have this in the bag

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    77% chance of REMAIN winning says @MattSingh_ With his accuracy at GE2015 punters take note https://t.co/wKD7ooJRHD pic.twitter.com/BXUJA9fRBy — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 17, 2016 But here’s a reminder that betting markets aren’t infallible. This time last year, Ed Miliband was odds-on favourite to be next Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/T9eaB53Zgq — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 14, 2016 @MSmithsonPB About 75% of money staked on elections happens in the last 4 weeks, even if the markets have been running for years. —…

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The perceptions on the Tories and Labour

The perceptions on the Tories and Labour

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YouGov have published some polling, conducted within the last week on which groups the voters identify the Tory Party and the Labour Party with. The findings aren’t that surprising. The Tories are perceived to be really close to the rich, businessmen/The City, and voters in the south. Whilst Labour are seen as being really close to trade unions, the working class, and benefit claimants. The most interesting finding from this polling was that the Tories are seen as being not…

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CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU statements/claims are trusted

CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU statements/claims are trusted

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Why LEAVE has to undermine the PM It is said, though I have no independent verification, that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance. With Corbyn now coming off the fence which should encourage the Labour IN vote current CON voters are a major battleground between IN and OUT. The polls vary but all have LEAVE ahead amongst this voting segment but the…

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Time to bet against the Donald

Time to bet against the Donald

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Trump’s amateur approach is costing him the election Back in October, I tipped Ted Cruz for the Republican nomination as a trading bet. As always with such bets, the trick is trading out at the right time. So with Cruz now at less than 2/1 across the board, when is that time? The simple answer is ‘not yet’. In a normal year, a candidate in Trump’s position would have the nomination near-enough sown up. Although he’ll probably fall short of…

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YouGov: Tory voters most ready to change EURef vote when asked what they’d do if BREXIT would cost them £100 a year

YouGov: Tory voters most ready to change EURef vote when asked what they’d do if BREXIT would cost them £100 a year

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There’s a new YouGov poll out which has REMAIN back with in lead from the level pegging. Actual figures are 40% to 39% so all within margin of errot. At the end of the survey YouGov posed this question. “Imagine that if the UK left the European Union the standard of living would be lower and people would on average be £100 a year worse off. In those circumstances, how would you vote in the referendum: Should the United Kingdom…

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Why the Tories could be being complacent over Jeremy Corbyn

Why the Tories could be being complacent over Jeremy Corbyn

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Via @montie More bad polling comparisons for Osborne. Look how far he's behind Corbyn pic.twitter.com/eXP1DSSqyT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2016 Alastair Meeks says predicting GE2020 is harder than the blues think Much comment has been passed this week on David Cameron’s falling ratings.  He now ranks behind Jeremy Corbyn on favourability ratings with YouGov.  “How low he has sunk” is the usual comment, and it is true. But as the table above shows, this is not a problem…

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