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Month: April 2016

ComRes becomes the 6th successive pollster to report moves to REMAIN compared with their last surveys

ComRes becomes the 6th successive pollster to report moves to REMAIN compared with their last surveys

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New ComRes/Mail phone poll has REMAIN 11% on its standard methodology but 16% with its turnout model pic.twitter.com/pxEeC9oW8K — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2016 ComRes’s “turnout model” makes the REMAIN lead 16% In terms of polling it’s been a devastating day for those wanting the UK out of the EU and the worst survey of all for them has just been published in the Mail. On standard methodology REMAIN is 11% ahead but when its new “turnout model” is…

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Why playing the man and not the issue might not be a good strategy for LEAVE

Why playing the man and not the issue might not be a good strategy for LEAVE

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Alastair Meeks has doubts about the BREXIT campaign approach Brexiteers have shown themselves to be very angry about many things.  These things include, but are not confined to, the conduct of the referendum campaign itself.  Their complaints are many and various but three in particular stand out: first, the In campaign is almost exclusively trying to scare floating voters into the status quo (“Project Fear” as it is often called); secondly, the Prime Minister has loaded the deck against them…

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And so the 2016 White House Race moves to delegate-rich New York

And so the 2016 White House Race moves to delegate-rich New York

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Trump and Clinton look set to win but it’s all about delegates In recent days there’s been a big improvement in Trump’s betting position following his disappointment in Wisconsin two weeks when he dropped to below a 50%. Here in New York it’s all about delegates in the GOP race where Trump needs to win as many of the 27 congressional as possible. Overall in the state there are 95 delegates at stake.A total of 1237, as we keep on…

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Vote Leave sets out its objective – TSE gives his robust interpretation

Vote Leave sets out its objective – TSE gives his robust interpretation

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Vote Leave spokesmen confirm stance: free trade with no free movement, no budget contributions and no supremacy of EU law. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) April 19, 2016 This is like the man who divorces his wife & still expects dinner & a blowjob from her every night after the divorce https://t.co/JukIWSL6pI — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 19, 2016

Punters think that Sadiq’s still on course for victory following last night’s TV debate

Punters think that Sadiq’s still on course for victory following last night’s TV debate

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Betfair punters rate Sadiq as 88% chance for London Mayor following the BBC TV debate pic.twitter.com/0XvUgfhnIZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2016 Under the moderation of Andrew Neil the five main contenders in the London Mayoral race took part in the big TV set piece of the election last night. In his normal manner Neil was pretty tough on all of them but I don’t think know it will have an impact on the direction of the race. Khan…

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The referendum is currently much more about the economy than immigration

The referendum is currently much more about the economy than immigration

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If it stays that way it’s good for REMAIN Today’s been a huge one in the build up to June 23rd. The Treasury statement announced by Osborne this morning has met with a furious reaction from the LEAVE and looking at the above polling you can see why. Detail from the ComRes/Sun poll shows responses to the question about which issue will be most important to voters in making up their minds. REMAIN backers the economy is twice as important…

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Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd fails to resolve the blue team’s #EURef schism

Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd fails to resolve the blue team’s #EURef schism

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https://twitter.com/robson_evan/status/722035639609376768 https://twitter.com/SimonGosden/status/721759490673139712 It’s in non-CON interests for the Tory battles to go on and on A party at war is pretty sight if you are not a supporter. The way this first Monday of the official referendum campaign has gone isn’t doing the Tories any favours and it is going to go on and on. It is an extraordinary spectacle. A Conservative Chancellor sets out projections of what BREXIT could cost and we see a huge effort from fellow Tories…

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