New ComRes/Mail phone poll has REMAIN 11% on its standard methodology but 16% with its turnout model pic.twitter.com/pxEeC9oW8K
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2016
ComRes’s “turnout model” makes the REMAIN lead 16%
In terms of polling it’s been a devastating day for those wanting the UK out of the EU and the worst survey of all for them has just been published in the Mail. On standard methodology REMAIN is 11% ahead but when its new “turnout model” is applied this move to 16%.
The latter was introduced by the firm in response to the GE2015 polling fail. Essentially it applies an adjustment to the responses from those in demographic segments which it says have a history of overstating their certainty to vote.
Basically the group most affected are the least affluent voters who on the referendum are more inclined to support LEAVE.
That is just one poll. The overall picture is that the improvement in REMAIN’s position is seen across the board in the last six polling firms to report. One of those was TNS which had a 4% REMAIN lead – the biggest that’s been reported in any online survey since the referendum question was fixed.
It is perhaps worth recalling that ComRes was the ONLY pollster in the formal GE2015 campaign period to report Tory leads in every single survey.