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Month: February 2016

All this week’s Local By-Election Results

All this week’s Local By-Election Results

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Oban North and Lorn (Argyll First defence, was Independent) on Argyll and Bute Result: Scottish National Party 1,113 (42% +11%), Conservative 609 (23% +14%), Independent 608 (23% -32%), Green Party 300 (11%, no candidate last time) Scottish National Party GAIN from Argyll First on the fourth count with a lead of 504 (19%) on a swing of 1.5% from Scottish National Party to Conservative Greasley (Con defence) and Toton and Chilwell Meadows (Con defence) on Browtoxe Greasley Result: Conservative 656…

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As the crucial Brussels talks go into day 2 it’s far from clear that Cameron will get a deal

As the crucial Brussels talks go into day 2 it’s far from clear that Cameron will get a deal

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Today should determine whether the referendum will be on June 23rd Once again all eyes will be on Brussels as Cameron seeks to get an EU deal that he’s confident will be sellable in the referendum. Judging by the reporting in some of the press he has some way to go and it might be that this ends today without agreement. In that situation there will have to be more talks at a later date and it is going to…

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Local By-Elections : February 18th 2016

Local By-Elections : February 18th 2016

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Emboldened indicates the by-election was caused by a death Emboldened italics indicates the by-election was caused by a resignation Oban North and Lorn (Argyll First defence, was Independent) on Argyll and Bute Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Scottish National Party 410, 707…

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The PB/Polling Matters Show & podcast: designed for those seriously interested in politics

The PB/Polling Matters Show & podcast: designed for those seriously interested in politics

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Insight & Analysis: The Supreme Court battle, WH2016, EU Ref & LAB’s dire polling numbers Welcome to the third show which builds on the hugely successful PB/Polling Matters podcasts by running it jointly on TV and in audio. This is a big venture for PB we are pleased with the reaction so far. We always knew that 2016 would be a very full political year with the White House Race and the May London/Scottish/Welsh and local elections – the first…

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Founder of ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, quits the Tories over Cameron’s EU stance

Founder of ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, quits the Tories over Cameron’s EU stance

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A sign of splits to come in the blue team? The political blogging pioneer and former chief of staff to IDS, Tim Montgomerie, announced overnight that he was quitting the party over Cameron’s stance on the EU. This clearly was a carefully timed announcement designed to have an impact. I’ve known Tim for a long time and have great respect for his journalistic and political skills. He founded ConservativeHome in the immediate aftermath of Tony Blair’s third LAB victory in…

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New Ipsos MORI phone EURef poll finds almost no change in REMAIN lead

New Ipsos MORI phone EURef poll finds almost no change in REMAIN lead

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Updated all the latest #EURef polling when actual question asked. The phone-online divide wider than ever pic.twitter.com/WO14EmOp4F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 Ipsos MORI phone poll finds little change on last month when actual #EURef question asked. 18% REMAIN lead down 1 pic.twitter.com/tbXP0WO9vf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 @IpsosMORI #EURef poll. Cameron and Boris will be the key influencers pic.twitter.com/oZNwyJU1pg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2016 @IpsosMORI finds most people thinking that #EURef REMAIN will…

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EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes

EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes

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Embed from Getty Images Myth 1: Cameron’s deal has been unexpectedly badly received Answer: NO Ipsos-MORI polled the public in November 2014 asking whether David Cameron would get a good deal for Britain in Europe.  69% said that they were either not at all confident or not very confident that he would do.  Only 26% were either fairly confident or very confident. How in fact has the outline deal gone down?  Well, almost exactly in line with this.  YouGov polled…

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