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Month: February 2016

Boris backs Brexit but will it have an impact if he’s not going to be that active?

Boris backs Brexit but will it have an impact if he’s not going to be that active?

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This could be a serious mistake if he isn’t going to be that active, he’s annoyed the PM, and will frustrate the party activists who are Outers, thus damaging his chances to succeed Cameron Watch: Boris Johnson's confirms he's backing the campaign for Britain to leave EU https://t.co/pxwMk12vat https://t.co/AhFCALwvnl — SkyNews (@SkyNews) February 21, 2016 Boris: I won't take part in endless TV debates against people in my party or share a platform with Farage and Galloway — Adam Boulton…

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Meet the man who could win the referendum for Leave

Meet the man who could win the referendum for Leave

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An unpopular budget could see the referendum become an opportunity to kick the government and that’s not good news for Remain. I’m not a fan of plebiscites simply because often they become a referendum not on the substantive issue of the referendum but a referendum on the Government of the day and an opportunity to give the government a kicking without the risk of a change of government. During the AV referendum, it seemed the primary reason many voters voted…

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Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests

Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests

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Hillary Clinton an 80% chance to be the Dem nominee according to Betfair. https://t.co/Tc078vwMRz pic.twitter.com/d50l8NJlcy — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 21, 2016 In the GOP race, Trump wins again A good night for Trump, but Trump skeptics see a lot to like in the results too. https://t.co/j3guoS4nPa — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 21, 2016 One concept that hasn't had a very good GOP race so far: "momentum". Both NH and SC results went against "momentum" in many respects. — Nate Silver…

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First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead

First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead

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Very little about the poll is known apart from the headline. I’m told that fieldwork started this morning so all took place after the EU deal was known. It was carried out by Survation by phone. There is no recent Survation EU phone polling to compare it to so it is hard to judge the impact. We do know that phone polls have been showing much bigger leads for IN than online ones. In the US all eyes are on…

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So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether to stay or leave

So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether to stay or leave

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Punters make IN a 70% chance So the starting gun has been fired on the EU membership referendum which will take place as planned on June 23rd. This is just 4 months away. It means that the referendum campaign will in many ways be running at the same time as the Scottish Welsh and of course London elections which happen at the start of May. What’s been striking today is the range of coordinated activity on the part of the…

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Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

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The initiative swings back to Remain But for Tony Marlow’s blazer, Michael Portillo might have ended up prime minister rather than a rail-hopping TV presenter. To have done so, he needed John Redwood to do sufficiently well in the first round of the Conservative Party leadership election against John Major. Redwood, however, never really recovered from his initial press conference when he “was lost in a mass of eccentric jackets and lime-green silk”, as Major put it. That one press…

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