Take on the mystery Betfair punter

Mike ran a thread the other day looking for markets that might be affected by Jeremy Corbyn’s likely victory in the Labour leadership stakes. He highlighted NO in the EU betting where I’d agree odds of nearly 4/1 are tempting.

However to my mind there are even better bets available in the London Mayoral voting – which will still be value even if Corbyn falls just short. Labour’s candidate is being decided on the same ballot paper as the leadership and it doesn’t take a great leap of logic to think that all the new sign-ups are not going to break for Jowell.

Tessa is seen as a Blairite which won’t go down well with the rejoining old left, and Sadiq has the backing of the major unions – notably Unite. Even more pertinently, reports are coming back from the campaign that this basic “Corbyn = Khan” logic is being seen in practice:

Ken Livingstone tells me that big influx of Corbyn supporters will help Sadiq Khan win mayoral nomination. 90% crossover in phonebanking.

— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) August 14, 2015

Regular PB’ers may well already be on Sadiq Khan at 33/1, thanks to Henry G Manson, and Zac Goldsmith at 22/1, thanks to yours truly.

However the logic of the Corbyn surge is surely to extend both of these positions: Khan now looks the clear favourite for the Labour nomination. Goldsmith also seems like a bet as he is more heavily favoured against Khan than Jowell, at least according to YouGov:

There’s also the argument that Zac Goldsmith will be even more likely to be elected if Corbyn wins.  I’m not certain about this as it will probably depend on the nature of the PLP’s response: if there’s infighting, defections or resignations then that won’t play well. However if the PLP bite their collective tongue Corbyn may get a post-election honeymoon. He is also a London MP, which may help.

Regardless, backing Sadiq and – perhaps to a lesser extent – Zac looks like the play here. And someone is making that very easy for us…

That’s over two grand looking to back Tessa at 3.15 (just shorter than 11/5), despite several bookies being 9/4 and one 5/2, and likewise nearly £2k looking to lay Zac at 3.25 (9/4) whereas the top bookie is just 2/1. This money has been there for a long time without moving in the slightest. (It was originally more like £2.5k on each – I have been nibbling away at it, as no doubt have others).

There is also no money “behind” either of these bets – in fact they are both a long way away from the next offer. Bluntly, this is odd behaviour for a serious punter (I’m assuming the same individual is responsible for both bets).

Either they are extraordinarily well informed about potential developments in the race (e.g. scandals), or they are simply looking to influence the prices and thus the framing of the race i.e. making Jowell favourite. I’m willing to go with the latter explanation.

I am not suggesting this is necessarily linked to the Jowell campaign; however I am suggesting that you take advantage of this mystery punter’s generosity.

Tissue Price