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Month: December 2014

Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib Dems up 3

Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib Dems up 3

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The Tories are down to their lowest share of the vote since May 2013 with ICM But the Lib Dems will be delighted as ICM is the third pollster this week to have them in double digits, two of them being phone pollsters. Guardian ICM phone poll makes grim reading for the Tories. But the Lib Dems are on the up. pic.twitter.com/vepvSt8G2r — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 17, 2014 But did George Osborne’s Autumn Statement contribute to the Tory…

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On the face of it this ComRes “issues that will most impact on voting” polling doesn’t look good for the Tories

On the face of it this ComRes “issues that will most impact on voting” polling doesn’t look good for the Tories

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ComRes ITV poll on the best party for the issues voters say will most influence their choice pic.twitter.com/tIeLwipejO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2014 But how strong is LAB on NHS and the cost of living? What is interesting about this ComRes survey for ITV is that it seeks to link the best party on each issue to what issues are likely to be decisive in influencing voter choice. Rather than just have “the economy” where the Tories are…

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New study of the Scottish IndyRef finds that the turnout level amongst 16 and 17 years olds was 75%

New study of the Scottish IndyRef finds that the turnout level amongst 16 and 17 years olds was 75%

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Surprisingly the least likely were 18-24 year olds A report from the Electoral Commission on September’s Scottish IndyRef finds that three-quarters of the 16/17 year old did exercise their vote. This comes in a study carried out for the Commission by ICM in which a particular effort was made to identify and interview non-voters. An explanation by Professor John Curtice of why the very youngest segment was more likely to vote is that maybe they were encouraged to do so…

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Maybe we should all stop looking at the polls and wait till after the holiday season

Maybe we should all stop looking at the polls and wait till after the holiday season

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Since Osborne's Autumn statement all the pollsters bar YouGov have had LAB leads pic.twitter.com/hQTcWdT8XI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2014 Since Nov 10 all polls bar YouGov’s have had LAB leads Interesting looking through the Wiki list of Westminster voting intention polls and one thing stands out – LAB has maintained a lead of some sort with all the firms apart from YouGov which, of course, reports five times a week for the Sun and the Sunday Times. Above…

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LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

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CON/LAB/LD all up – UKIP/GREEN down The LDs will be delighted with this poll even though they are only half the level that they got at GE2010 – but this is a bit of progress. UKIP and the Greens are down while LAB and move up. It should emphasised that the long-standing ComRes series of phone polls for the Independent is completely separate from the monthly online surveys from the Indy on Sunday. Tonight’s poll also found that those sampled…

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England ONLY data from latest ComRes poll shows that the Tories have massive struggle south of the border

England ONLY data from latest ComRes poll shows that the Tories have massive struggle south of the border

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Latest ComRes online poll ENGLAND only compared with GE10 England result pic.twitter.com/q7pUA1iaBU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2014 At GE2010 CON led in England by 11.2%. Now just 1% Given that Scotland is operating totally differently at the moment I have been trying to identify the England only poll shares from the main surveys. The chart above is from yesterday’s IoS/S Mirror poll by ComRes and has the Tories just 1% ahead in England. That is ten points short…

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Headline figures of many polls feature views of many more men than women and this could be skewing results

Headline figures of many polls feature views of many more men than women and this could be skewing results

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Fewer women say they are certain to vote and they are more likely to be undecided Just look at the chart which is based on the Populus November aggregate data with a very large overall sample from 9 separate polls. As can be seen male voters account for more than 50% of each party’s support with, not unexpectedly, UKIP showing the biggest divide. What is striking is that although the overall sample is weighted properly for gender balance when it…

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