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Month: September 2014

How the Betfair #IndyRef price has changed over the past month

How the Betfair #IndyRef price has changed over the past month

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How the IndyRef NO price has moved over past month. pic.twitter.com/5TYmxFxFMt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 There really hasn’t been that much movement Coming up this evening ICM for the Scotsman and then Survation for the Mail – both polls online. Surprisingly betting has not been as heavy as on previous days. Everybody is waiting for new polls. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

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It was by far the top pollster at the 2011 Holyrood elections There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow. The online firms that use polling panels – YouGov, Panelbase and Opinium, Survation which does online and phone, and an Ipsos-MORI phone poll. It is that last one I’m most looking forward to because of its record in Scotland last time out – the Holyrood elections of 2011. We haven’t seen anything from the firm on the…

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Will Parliament next Saturday end Cameron’s Premiership?

Will Parliament next Saturday end Cameron’s Premiership?

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The knee-jerk response to a YES vote? A couple of days ago the Sunday Times reports (££) Informal soundings have been taken about recalling parliament on Saturday, the first Saturday sitting since the Falklands War, if there is a “yes” victory. I know there’s been a lot of debate on pb and elsewhere, about David Cameron resigning in the event of Scotland voting to secede from the United Kingdom, whilst I’ve been in the camp, that he wouldn’t resign, I’m ever…

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Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

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The Guardian ICM phone poll is out. It confirms what the suspicion that last month’s ICM with a Labour lead of 7% was an outlier. The Greens are up to 7%, only 3% from being third in a Westminster VI poll! whilst the Lib Dems  are equalling their worst-ever performance over the last two decades. It maybe the Greens are receiving a boost, having just held their conference. For those anticipating swingback, well, there may not be much scope for that…

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Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

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A new poll of Canadians by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies has just come out and finds Scottish IndyRef YES is supported by 32% to 29%. Interestingly amongst those sampled who are from Quebec the split was 44% YES to 24% NO. The independence referendum that took place in the Province in October 1995 is is the closest comparison to Thursday’s big election in Scotland. Back then YES went into polling day with a lead but voters in…

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The pollsters’ big fear: Thursday could be a disaster for them like 1992

The pollsters’ big fear: Thursday could be a disaster for them like 1992

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GE1992 Even the exit poll got it wrong Martin Boon, head of ICM the pollster with the best track record, has voiced on several occasions in recent weeks that the Scottish referendum could be a disaster for them on the scale of 1992. This was when all the firms totally understated the eventual CON lead of 7.5% and only one of them had a lead at all albeit of just 0.5% For GE1992 was the election when the pollsters got…

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Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland

Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland

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The shape of polling to come post referendum? Interesting new Survation poll published overnight by Survation with new Westminster numbers showing for the first time two sets of numbers – both with Scotland and without. The outcome is not surprising but it is good to measure it. Given that generally Survation tends to show higher UKIP figures than most other firms and lower CON ones then the one percent CON deficit should be encouraging. But inevitably the whole political environment…

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