It was by far the top pollster at the 2011 Holyrood elections
There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow. The online firms that use polling panels – YouGov, Panelbase and Opinium, Survation which does online and phone, and an Ipsos-MORI phone poll.
It is that last one I’m most looking forward to because of its record in Scotland last time out – the Holyrood elections of 2011. We haven’t seen anything from the firm on the IndyRef since the night of the first debate at the start of August. Then it had YES 40/NO 54/ DK 7. Clearly a lot has happened in the intervening period.
It’s worth recalling, as in the chart above, that at the 2011 Scottish Holyrood elections Ipsos-MORI had a remarkably accurate final poll with the SNP, LAB and LD shares right to within one percent.
I decided not to embarrass the other pollsters by highlighting their record on that day in the chart. They performed poorly in comparison.
Whether past performance in that election proves to be a good guide we’ll have to wait until Friday. But the Ipsos-MORI survey from three years ago adds a lot to my confidence.