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Month: September 2014

The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

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The Mail on Sunday this morning Mail on Sunday asks if the YouGov 2% YES poll was a rogue & cost UK £45bn http://t.co/CQ393tPpzF pic.twitter.com/sYWq9Yqhk2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 YouGov’s Kellner responds War of words between developing Mail/S & YouGov's Kellner http://t.co/La4AQIJlkv over that YES 2% poll 2 wks ago pic.twitter.com/EVGeHaFsBq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 Some polling lessons for an EU referendum? Two things gave that 2% YES lead its greater potency: the advance hyping…

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Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

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PaddyPower’s 5/2 is a great bet One election result from Friday that barely got reported was the selection by the Watford Lib Dems of Mayor Dorothy Thornhill as candidate for the general election. This is something that I had been anticipating and over the months and have built up what is my biggest GE2015 betting position on her with a best price of 11/2. Dorothy Thornhill is a remarkable figure in the town who on the disastrous May 2014 elections…

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The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….

The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….

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….David Evershed, who got the Yes percentage spot on. David, can you contact Mike here so you can receive your £50 worth of free bets from Shadsy. You can check out your own performance by clicking here. Many thanks once again to Shadsy of Ladbrokes politics for donating the prize, and Mark Hopkins for developing the software for us to submit our entries. TSE

The simple solution to the question of Scottish MPs: Do what was done in Northern Ireland in 1920

The simple solution to the question of Scottish MPs: Do what was done in Northern Ireland in 1920

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Look at how Northern Ireland’s numbers were changed Reduce the number of Scottish MPs I love the wonderfully simple solution to the Scottish MPs question by JohnO on the previous thread:- “We have been here before. Until 1972 the former Northern Ireland Parliament at Stormont enjoyed full devo max powers. What was the messy, rough and ready, probably anomalous but characteristically ‘British’ answer to compensate the rest of the country? Simple. Just make the NI constituencies at Westminster far larger…

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English votes for English laws (EV4EL) – the question is whether Cameron is able to deliver

English votes for English laws (EV4EL) – the question is whether Cameron is able to deliver

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Election pledges won’t count after the Lisbon Treaty experience In 1787, a group of Americans came together and wrote a whole new constitution for their country from scratch in the space of four hot and humid months.  Two and a quarter centuries later, it’s still going strong.  True, they didn’t have the complicating factors of histories and traditions or established institutions that the UK has now but they did have to contend with other barriers to success, perhaps at least…

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It’s hard to see anyone other than Nicola Sturgeon winning the SNP leadership

It’s hard to see anyone other than Nicola Sturgeon winning the SNP leadership

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Nicola Sturgeon 1/3 favourite with William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn to succeed Salmond as SNP keader. pic.twitter.com/S2LRjzaSlj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 After Alex Salmond’s not unexpected departure this afternoon following the YES defeat in the referendum the bookies have installed his depity, Nicola Sturgeon, as odds on favourite. Looking down the list of possibles from the bookies it is hard to see any alternative. But who knows? I thought that she had good referendum campaign and managed to avoid…

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The referendum claims its first casualty – Alex Salmond

The referendum claims its first casualty – Alex Salmond

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pic.twitter.com/FQ3EkyeDrY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 BBC report on Salmond pic.twitter.com/Y4feUFJoeM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 You could have got 3/1 from Paddy Power on this during the night. In many ways this was the natural conclusion to his fight over the years. Salmond had his brilliant success at the Holyrood elections when the SNP achieved what no other party had ever done before – a majority in the Scottish Parliament. It was that election that…

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Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)

Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)

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Abergele, Pensarn on Conwy (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 14) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 407 (55%), Independent 186 (25%), Conservative 145 (20%) Candidates duly nominated: Barry Griffiths (Ind), Val Parker (Ind), John Pitt (Con), Michael Smith (Ind), Rick Stubbs (Lab), Ken Sudlow (Ind), Sarah Wardlaw (UKIP) Conwy is one of these councils were the…

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