Browsed by
Month: September 2014

Some of tomorrow’s front pages and tonight’s yougov.

Some of tomorrow’s front pages and tonight’s yougov.

Comments 0 Comment

GUARDIAN: Miliband's 2.5bn pledge puts NHS at heart of election battle #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/ODupyBb7dQ — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014 INDEPENDENT: Obama's Damascene conversion #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/i3JnDAhrmH — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014 Tonight’s YouGov makes for pleasant reading for Labour and Ed. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead up five to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) September 23, 2014 I’d remember the two usual caveats, polling…

Read More Read More

The Ed Miliband speech – The Highlights

The Ed Miliband speech – The Highlights

Comments 0 Comment

  Ed's speech to conference pic.twitter.com/0kUkZtWCLI — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Highlights from Ed's speech pic.twitter.com/v8sI8iuRvZ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Highlights from Ed's speech – Part II pic.twitter.com/5ilxSCgKA6 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 But will it be overshadowed by events elsewhere? But did Obama overshadow Ed's speech? pic.twitter.com/XCJbgHtWaL — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Apologies, but I’ve not been able to watch the speech in full, I only…

Read More Read More

Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside of Manchester?

Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside of Manchester?

Comments 0 Comment

His speech from last year Ed’s last two party conference speeches have dominated the political landscape, two years ago it was the One Nation speech, last year it was the energy price freeze speech. Both speeches saw a temporary uplift in his personal ratings. This year, given that this is his last speech to conference before the general election, I’m expecting a major announcement, my own hunch, based purely on my feelings, is that we’re going to get something to…

Read More Read More

Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the next to leave the cabinet

Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the next to leave the cabinet

Comments 0 Comment

In the summer, there were stories that Jo Swinson will replace Alistair Carmichael as Scottish Secretary following the independence referendum regardless of the result.  During the last weeks of the indyref campaign, there were stories that Carmichael would resign immediately in the event of a Yes, which pushed his price out to as low as 1/3 last week. Given he was 1/3  and 5/6 at various stages last week, I thought the 5/6 was value, with the stories in the summer he would make…

Read More Read More

Interview with the punter who bet 900k on no winning the Indyref

Interview with the punter who bet 900k on no winning the Indyref

Comments 0 Comment

listen to ‘Jeremy speaks to gambler who placed £900,000 bet on 'No' vote ’ on Audioboo   If you click the play button above, you’ll be able to listen to the interview.   Here’s a link to an article accompanying the interview. I always find it fascinating listening to the reasons and strategies why other people bet the way they do, because if they’re successful, it is will be wise to replicate their approach in the future, if they’re not…

Read More Read More

The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

Comments 0 Comment

From the Ipsos-Mori that featured this morning, Ipsos-Mori asked the following “I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…” The two findings that stood out were UKIP were comfortably viewed as the most extreme, and the least fit to govern in answer to that question.   My own thinking is these are the kind of findings that will…

Read More Read More

Understanding the Ed Miliband polling paradox

Understanding the Ed Miliband polling paradox

Comments 0 Comment

How are Labour’s maintaining its poll leads, despite Ed’s poor ratings? One of the things that has been consistent in the last few years, the voters don’t rate Ed Miliband and he often trails David Cameron on most polling questions. In the past, I’ve shown that Ed Miliband’s ratings as Leader of the Opposition are very poor compared to his predecessors, only Michael Foot had worse ratings one year before a General Election, yet Labour still continue to generally lead…

Read More Read More

The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

Comments 0 Comment

Survation find that one in two Scot would gibe it their vote Details have been published this afternoon of a Survation phone poll in Scotland carried out in the immediate aftermath of the referendum defeat. The figures are in the chart above and show shares which I believe have the SNP at a new high in any poll. Clearly the high profile and the hugely energised electorate have given the party a huge boost. The numbers are a timely reminder…

Read More Read More