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Month: May 2014

We could be heading for GE2015 outcome that’ll appear to be grossly unfair, undemocratic and peverse

We could be heading for GE2015 outcome that’ll appear to be grossly unfair, undemocratic and peverse

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This result could totally undermine the legitimacy of Labour’s victory The big impact of the rise of Ukip looks set to be a general election outcome that could call into question its whole legitimacy. If current trends continue Ukip could end up with many more votes nationally than the LDs and not end up with a single MPs. Labour could come home with a substantial overall majority even though it chalked up less than a third of the overall number…

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Chances are that half of all the votes will have been cast by Monday

Chances are that half of all the votes will have been cast by Monday

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Postal voting starts for the Euros pic.twitter.com/PrO0foV8JO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 4, 2014 For them the elections are over The latest for postal vote packs to have gone out was yesterday and will have arrived this morning. Given what we know of how quickly postal voters generally act and the level of turnouts that these elections attract it is not too dramatic an assumption to say that getting on for half of all the votes have now been cast….

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Cameron’s big 2015 debate gamble: to play or to sabotage

Cameron’s big 2015 debate gamble: to play or to sabotage

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The 5-3-2 proposal is unworkable and looks like a wrecking attempt There’s no doubt that David Cameron looks like someone who wants to avoid the kind of leaders’ debates that dominated the 2010 election.  He’s on record as saying that he’d prefer a different format, though the lack of engagement in the process to design them suggests no great urgency on his or his party’s part. Indeed, the proposal to have three debates – one between him and Ed Miliband,…

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The Eurovision thread

The Eurovision thread

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Tomorrow sees the annual European music extravaganza that is Eurovision, but whom to back and lay? In the first semi-final we saw the Russian entry get booed, some say for a mixture of Russia’s contretemps in Ukraine and Russia’s approach to the LGBT community. Given the demographics of Eurovision watchers and voters, that may not help Russia, so I’m laying Russia. YouGov conducted some polling on this, and they found  55% think Russia will do worse at Eurovision because of…

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EdM’s Labour is attracting far fewer Lib Dem converts for the May 22nd Euros than for the general election

EdM’s Labour is attracting far fewer Lib Dem converts for the May 22nd Euros than for the general election

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The voter churn is much nuanced than many in the red team think The above chart is based on the last three Euro2014 polls where there were Westminster numbers as well. The figures shown are proportions of 2010 LDs saying they’ll vote LAB in the general election and those who’ll support the party in the May 22nd Euros. As can be seen there’s quite a difference which raises questions about the LAB strategy with this key group of voters who…

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Welcome back Marf and the second 35% share for LAB from YouGov this week

Welcome back Marf and the second 35% share for LAB from YouGov this week

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@YouGov Two 35% LAB shares & a 37% this week – the worst period for LAB since Jul 2010. pic.twitter.com/qnEiLypmSF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2014 Looking back over the past decade there’s little doubt that Westminster voting intentions can be all over the place in the closing phase of the Euro elections campaign. It happened in 2004 and 2009 so maybe there’s a case for saying that we oughtn’t to read too much into the current comparatively poor…

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Local By-Election Preview: May 8th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: May 8th 2014

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Roman Bank on Fenland (Conservative defence) Result of last election for council (2011): Conservatives 34, Independents 4, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 28) Result of last election for ward (2011) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,256, 1,092, 1,007 Labour 590 Liberal Democrats 361 Candidates duly nominated: Samantha Clark (Con), Stephen Court (Lib Dem), Barry Diggle (Lab), Alan Lay (UKIP), Erbie Murat (Ind) Fenland (located between Huntingdonshire and King’s Lynn) is about a bedrock of Conservative support as you can…

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