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Month: December 2013

Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON marginals polling funded by a UKIP donor

Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON marginals polling funded by a UKIP donor

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70% of UKIP Voters DID NOT vote CON at GE2010 After last week’s Thanet South poll there’s a second wave just out funded by UKIP donor Alan Bown and carried out by Survation. The picture that’s emerging is very similar to what the Ashcroft marginals poll found in September – that the Tories are faring worse in the key battlegrounds than in the country as a whole. The focus in the latest phase was on two of the key marginals…

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NOTE – TO ACCESS MAIN SITE GO TO WWW.POLITICALBETTING.COM

NOTE – TO ACCESS MAIN SITE GO TO WWW.POLITICALBETTING.COM

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URL change: To access the latest posts please click www.politicalbetting.com For three and a half years I have highlighted the YouGov “most to blame for the cuts” tracker as, perhaps, a good non-voting intention tracker. On the face of it you’d think that if the red team was continuing to get the blame with less than a year and a half to go then it would start to appear in the voting numbers. Yet that doesn’t seem to be happening….

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At GE2015 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before

At GE2015 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before

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Getting messages across is going to be a lot more difficult The above is from a Populus/Open Road poll which asked the simple question of which parts of the media people got information from each day. The poll did not cover the type of information so it is to be expected that percentages consuming what we think of as “news” are a lot lower. Clearly we’ve seen from newspaper circulation figures how the printed media is falling sharply. What I…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. Nighthawks gives me the opportunity to say Let Me Entertain you with my round up of links. To you lurkers, if you D:Rream of delurking, why not delurk tonight? Things Can Only Get Better for you when you delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)…

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Polling suggests that it is going to be harder for Tories to win UKIP votes than for the LDs to win LAB ones

Polling suggests that it is going to be harder for Tories to win UKIP votes than for the LDs to win LAB ones

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Double the %age of LAB voters will help LDs as UKIP ones the Tories Last week’s Survation Thanet South polling last week highlighted the reluctance of UKIP voters to switch to the Tories in order to stop EdM being PM. Given that the extent that UKIP switchers are ready to vote blue looks set to be a key determinant at GE2015 I’ve been looking for other data on the issue. Spetember’s massive 12,800 sample phone poll of marginals produced by…

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Leader ratings 18 months before an election

Leader ratings 18 months before an election

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I thought it might be useful how Ed and Dave compare to their predecessors as Leader of the Opposition and Prime Minister, eighteen months prior to a General Election. First onto the Leader of the Opposition net ratings with Ipsos-Mori, eighteen months before the General Election. A few caveats about this data.  I’ve included Iain Duncan Smith’s final rating, before he was removed as Tory Leader, Michael Howard’s rating, is his first rating as Leader of the Opposition. Overall, it is…

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Is John Rentoul right – Was Boris’ speech a disaster and Theresa May has just come a little closer to being Theresa Will?

Is John Rentoul right – Was Boris’ speech a disaster and Theresa May has just come a little closer to being Theresa Will?

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On Wednesday Boris Johnson delivered the Margaret Thatcher lecture at the Centre for Policy Studies. You can read the full speech here. I must declare an interest, speaking as a Tory, I loved the speech, in my opinion, this is the sort of speech more Tories need to make. Unsurprisingly It has lead to pieces like Boris Johnson’s philosophy isn’t just elitist – it’s sinister and  Boris Johnon is Still a ‘Nasty Piece of Work’? even George Osborne distanced himself from parts of…

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Sunday Morning Polling Round Up

Sunday Morning Polling Round Up

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UKIP have their highest score since 11th June with YouGov Con 30 (-3) Lab 38 (-2) LD 10 (+1) UKIP 15 (+4) Changes since last week — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) December 1, 2013 And UKIP hit their highest score with Opinium since Mid July Con 28 (nc) Lab 35 (-2) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 19 (+3) — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) December 1, 2013 There were a couple of polls out last night, both seeing UKIP score figures they haven’t hit since the…

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