Home of the web’s best political conversation Wwy not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk, don’t be a Fly On The Wall, once you start posting, you’ll get The Best of Both Worlds, reading and contributing to PB, which is The Good Life. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) The Rise Of The…
A feeling of economic well-being is surely central to GE2015 There’s a new survey out from Populus with a sample of 4,071 British adults, in which 44% said that the most important issue in determining their vote at GE2015 will be either the economy or the cost of living. Of those participating 38% leant towards agreeing that there is a national economic recovery underway, just 11% of the sample agreed they feel part of that recovery. Further, 38% thought there…
In the days of Twitter a ban isn’t going to work A new ComRes survey of 159 MPs reveals that 30% of MPs overall, including 35% of Labour MPs and one in four Tories (25%), would support a ban on the publication of opinion polls in the run-up to General Elections. The survey comes in the wake of the Indian Election Commission banning exit polls in the five states holding elections this month, plus a ban on any opinion polls…
Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’ve had a Bad Day, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk this One Time, if in the past you’ve said you’d never delurk, I hope you remember that you should Never Say Never, Delurking isn’t All Bad. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)…
STAY draws level with LEAVE in new YouGov EU referendum poll For the first time since January YouGov’s “how would you vote in an EU referendum” polling has not had LEAVE in the lead. The latest figures, broken down by party supported are in the chart above. These splits are what you’d expect. Opinion seems to have moved quite sharply since the summer. In May it was LEAVE 47% to STAY 30%. An element that might be having an impact…
Polling turnout filters might be deceptive It has become standard practice almost all polling firms to include a weighting for turn out particularly in the final stages of a campaign. Participants are asked to rate the chances of them voting on a scale of 1-10 and the results are used to scale up or scale down their voting intention responses. The most radical approach is taken by Ipsos-MORI which only includes the views of those 10/10 absolutely certain to vote…
ICM finds huge gender gap Among men LAB & CON tied on 32% each Amongst women LAB 45% CON 26%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 39% of those who voted LD at GE2010 tell ICM that now they are voting LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 In July the firm had CON & LAB level pegging Good Ed v Dave scores in ICM poll for Guardian just out http://t.co/Ax0GrjDkkn pic.twitter.com/Mo8tVSsS4U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 The…
Latest odds from PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T on the government after the next election pic.twitter.com/QKY6NtKrXz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 With another bookie I have another CON-LD coalition at 9/1 and I’ve got 12/1 that there’ll be another hung parliament but no coalition. In many ways I think that a LD-LAB coalition is less likely than a CON-LD one. I think that LAB would find it much harder to swallow going in with the yellows than Dave did in 2010. If…