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Month: November 2013

The answer to Ben Brogan’s point about why in current context the Tories are doing badly is here from the August Ipsos-MORI poll

The answer to Ben Brogan’s point about why in current context the Tories are doing badly is here from the August Ipsos-MORI poll

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Telegraph's Ben Brogan says q not why LAB doing well, but why CON badly? http://t.co/stEH68O5IM See this Aug 1/2 pic.twitter.com/NPiPYxk9LD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2013 And this on EdM & LAB from same Ipsos-MORI poll in August CON liked a lot less than LAB pic.twitter.com/32CRpINKW8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2013 The ANTI-CON tribe is bigger than the PRO-CON one As can be seen the Tories have a net minus 19% on the like/dislike question. Labour by contrast…

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The Sykes donation puts up the stakes for Farage at EURO2014 – any less than 1st place will be a failure

The Sykes donation puts up the stakes for Farage at EURO2014 – any less than 1st place will be a failure

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With the cash & all the coverage UKIP have to succeed For a party that doesn’t have a single MP it’s quite remarkable that UKIP goes into next May’s EU elections as the evens betting favourite to come out top on votes. The Sykes donation on top of the extraordinary level of coverage for Farage, have simply added to the expectations and the party simply has to come top. Receiving a few million pounds from a Yorkshire tycoon has its…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, nighthawks is All About You, Please Please, take the opportunity to Delurk, once you delurk, you’ll be saying Don’t Stop Me Now. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Ed Miliband can’t face down Unite or Ed Balls. He’s a leader who…

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As Paul Sykes promises to pump millions into UKIP’s EP2014 campaign LAB’s top fundraiser leaves

As Paul Sykes promises to pump millions into UKIP’s EP2014 campaign LAB’s top fundraiser leaves

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@MSmithsonPB Thanks Mike. Happy memories of us with Stephen visiting Hillary and Bill in the Oval in 1999. Deja vu! pic.twitter.com/I7K19lVaqf — John McCaffrey (@McCaffJohn) November 16, 2013 John McCaffrey ‘s departure is not good for Labour There’ve been two political fundraising stories over the past few days. The unsurprising news that Paul Sykes has promised several millions for the UKIP Euro election campaign for next May and the departure of John McCaffrey as Labour’s head of fundraising and commercial…

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A NO in the Scottish #IndyRef is not a certainty and betting at 1-7 is crazy

A NO in the Scottish #IndyRef is not a certainty and betting at 1-7 is crazy

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Latest best odds Scottish #IndyRef pic.twitter.com/HESQaQuvia — PolPics (@PolPics) November 17, 2013 Keep hold of your money Over the past week there have been a number of reports from the bookies about punters placing four and five figure bets on NO in the IndyRef at prices as tight as 1/7. The thinking is that the outcome is now a certainty and that locking your cash up for ten months produces a return that is far in excess of what you…

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Whatever the polls are saying the memory of GE1992 will give hope to the Tories right to the end

Whatever the polls are saying the memory of GE1992 will give hope to the Tories right to the end

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Remember the election that was a total disaster for the pollsters It’s being reported that David Cameron is using John Major’s successful and surprise victory at GE1992 as a model for his party in seventeen months time. Whether the planned campaigning “double whammy” type tax shock approach will work we’ll have to wait and see but the result from April 1992 will give the blue team hopes of a majority right until the early hours of May 8th 2015. For…

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Punters continue to rate Tory chances of a majority at more than 23pc

Punters continue to rate Tory chances of a majority at more than 23pc

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This is looking like the Romney betting ahead of WH2012 What’s been one of the intensive weeks of polling since the last election has barely moved the betting markets where Tory chances of securing a majority are rated at more than 23%. The LAB price continues to be in the mid-30s even though current polls translated into seats could see them with a majority of 80+. A hung parliament remains the punters’ favourite at just on a 40% chance. The…

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