This is looking like the Romney betting ahead of WH2012
What’s been one of the intensive weeks of polling since the last election has barely moved the betting markets where Tory chances of securing a majority are rated at more than 23%.
The LAB price continues to be in the mid-30s even though current polls translated into seats could see them with a majority of 80+.
A hung parliament remains the punters’ favourite at just on a 40% chance.
The Tory price has been buoyant since June and seems to be immune to current polling which has seen it edge more to LAB in recent weeks.
I can see a case for saying that the Tories might pull back so that they are level on votes or are even one or two points ahead. But they are miles away from the support levels required for a majority.
Certainly I expect backing for UKIP to decline in the key LAB-CON battlegrounds as we get closer to May 2015 but I find it hard seeing much of the 2010 LD to LAB switching evaporate. That seems more solidly based and represents a movement of voters that is larger than the cumulative increase in the CON vote since 1997.
The current value bet, judged in terms of the chance of it happening compared with the odds, is on a LAB majority. This market is reminiscent of the strong betting support for Romney ahead of WH2012 which persisted in spite of the polls.
With political betting many bet with their hearts and not their heads.