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Month: September 2013

LAB has no worries about Tories returning to the fold because virtually no 2010 CON voters have switched

LAB has no worries about Tories returning to the fold because virtually no 2010 CON voters have switched

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Four party politics renders historical precedents obsolete So many theories are being put forward about the next general election based on what’s happened in the past before the era of four party politics. The rise of UKIP, I’d suggest, makes this redundant. There are no valid precedents. A common one is that voters will swing back to the main governing party from LAB because that’s what’s happened at previous elections. Only problem is that the move away from the Tories…

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Local By-Election Preview : September 12th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : September 12th 2013

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Dunstable, Northfields on Central Befordshire (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 5, Ind 4, Lab 1 (Con overall majority of 38) Result at last election (2011): (Emboldened denotes elected) Party Candidate Votes Vote % Independent Julian Murray 877 32.9% Conservative Denise Green 757 28.4% Conservative Jeannette Freeman 753 Labour Michael Rogers 618 23.2% Labour Duncan Ross 594 Independent Laurie Mansfield 198 7.4% Lib Dems Roderick Keyes 168 6.3% Lib Dems Anthony Swain 117 Independent Mary Norman…

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If it really is “the economy stupid” then LAB has a big problem. But is it?

If it really is “the economy stupid” then LAB has a big problem. But is it?

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Chart from YouGov showing the trend its "Blame for Spnding Cuts" tracker. LAB finding hard to shake this off pic.twitter.com/4chGkNN1Pq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 Chart from YouGov with trend on party best able to handle economy. LAB behind pic.twitter.com/YKqWHVwhG0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 But isn’t this being “priced in” to the voting figures? YouGov chart on what's happened in its polling since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/iVPRkDQYKS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 That famous saying from…

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If UKIP supporters had answered this Populus online question in a certain way they could have boosted the “value” of their views by a factor of 13

If UKIP supporters had answered this Populus online question in a certain way they could have boosted the “value” of their views by a factor of 13

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Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with? Yesterday afternoon I was at a polling seminar at the LSE attended by leading academics, pollsters and those, like me, with a keen interest in measuring political opinion. The highlight for many attendees was the sharp…

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Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels

Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels

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Ipsos-MORI headline figures just those certain to vote Amongst all those sampled by LAB lead 10 See pic.twitter.com/ehp7Mthk3B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 All 4 main party leaders slip, though EdM the worst, in Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings. See pic.twitter.com/AqALmRGVdw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now at William Hague levels. See trend chart pic.twitter.com/imwaazQfcj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 In spite of this LAB still taking 31% of 2010 LDs Mike Smithson

Tim Farron – The Lib Dem leader at the General Election?

Tim Farron – The Lib Dem leader at the General Election?

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Since the Syria vote a lot of the attention and comment has been focussed upon the Leadership of Dave and Ed, trying to work who was and will be the winner and the loser from the Syria vote. But what of Nick Clegg? He was dealt a damaging blow to his leadership as 24 out of his 57 MPs, including the Party President Tim Farron, revolted over his backing of military intervention in Syria. Tim Farron has a history of not…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, cross the Rubicon, from lurking to posting. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) George Osborne takes aim at Labour’s record in opposition What Osborne won’t admit: growth has increased because of slower cuts Who donates what to…

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