Marf gives her take as EdM prepares to give his big speech
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Damian McBride says he doesn’t think his revelations will have any electoral impact. I think that he’s right
But it could have done just if published in April 2015 The biggest political impact of the McBride book and now TV interviews is that they will reduce media coverage of the current Labour conference. Some of the messages that EdM and his team were hoping to get across will be over-shadowed. That might depress the short-term polling impact that Labour could have expected from its conference but really that will be as far as it goes. One of the…
Nighthawks is open
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not Step On to pb.com, and make it a Happy Monday by delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) On Europe, Angela Merkel’s election win may save Britain from itself - The German chancellor’s hat-trick puts her at the helm in…
Fewer don’t knows and a greater certainty to vote give the LDs a 3 percent post-conference boost
The Monday Populus online poll it out and shows CON, LAB and UKIP unchanged with the Lib Dems moving up from 11% to 14% Looking at the detail and comparing it with other recent polls from the firm most of the movement for the LDs is as a result of fewer GE2010 voters who were saying don’t know now saying they are voting for Clegg’s party. There is also a greater certainty to vote. All this is fairly normal for…
It is time that polling was more bottom up rather than top down
We don’t vote for parties or leaders. We vote for individual MPs The 2013/14 political season is now into its third week and from a poll watcher’s point of view there have been a couple of really good innovations which I think will help the process of election forecasting. I really like the new ComRes question about which party voters think will make them better off. It’s that perception, I’d argue, rather than which is seen as “best on the…
Will “Angie’s” third term be with the reds or the yellows?
It's General Election day in Germany Can Merkel win again? Exit polls out late afternoon pic.twitter.com/lPNcEj03Un — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 Unless the polls have been very wrong, Angela Merkel is heading for a third term as German Chancellor, a feat that only Adenauer and Kohl have managed since 1949 (and they both went on to win four elections). The great theme of stability in German politics will thus continue, with only four changes in governing party, and only eight…
The great polling divide: CON wins on big broad themes but when it gets personal LAB ahead
Ipsos-MORI find the Tories a best party on economy, crime and immigration. See chart pic.twitter.com/5fdpKbm6xr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 LAB wins on areas that directly affect people LAB seen as best party on education, health care, unemployment and housing. See Ipsos-MORI chart pic.twitter.com/Gy7HuI9fKW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 As ComRes found people think they’d be better off under LAB Latest YouGov sees LAB lead at 4 LAB lead at 4% in today's YouGov for Sunday…
UPDATED: CON down in 20s with both ComRes and Opinium
LAB extends lead with Opinium Other points from ComRes I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 23% (+8 since March 2012) Disagree 50% (-9) I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 28% (-1) Disagree 49% (0) I would expect my family to be better off than it is now if the Conservatives win the next election Agree 22% Disagree 47% I would…