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Month: July 2013

Dave was doing OK at PMQs but he raised Unite just too many times

Dave was doing OK at PMQs but he raised Unite just too many times

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How many people know who Len McCluskey actually is? The most interesting feature of PMQs today was actually the new line of attack from EdM on free schools. Why are the government funding new schools in areas where there are surplus places when at the same time when there are parts of the country with desperate shortages? This got buried under the barrage from Cameron on UNITE and the Falkirk selection. It got a good response initially but then Dave…

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The methods used by the big unions to get Ed Milliband elected in 2010 are why he has to stand up to UNITE now

The methods used by the big unions to get Ed Milliband elected in 2010 are why he has to stand up to UNITE now

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The row over the Falkirk selection could make or break him Mail packs, such as the one featured above from the GMB union to those of its members entitled to vote in Labour’s leadership election, played a pivotal role in EdM’s victory September 2010. They were developed for the GMB, UNISON and UNITE unions to get round a Labour party ban on candidates’ promotional materials being included in the voting packs for the election. Instead the ballot papers were nested…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re interested in political betting, and you’re thinking I Don’t Want To Miss a Thing about political betting, then you’ve come to right place. If you’re a lurker, why not Walk This Way and delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) Why the…

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In spite of the June polling decline UKIP are still odds on favourites to come top on votes at next year’s Euro

In spite of the June polling decline UKIP are still odds on favourites to come top on votes at next year’s Euro

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UKIP remain odds-on favourite to win most votes at Euro2014. See pic.twitter.com/xhe95mdgjs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2013 I still think the Tories could surprise us The 4% average poll decline experienced by UKIP last month has not impacted on the betting on next year’s Euro elections. As the chart shows they are still odds on favorite. My money, at 10/1 is on the Tories coming out on top – a position they’ve achieved in every Euro election since…

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The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc

The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc

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Are figures like this the new normality? There’s a general rule about the Sun’s daily poll from YouGov – if the numbers are good for the Tories then they get Tweeted overnight. If not then we usually have to wait until the normal publication time of 6am. The latest figures came out before midnight and show the CON and LAB shares at exactly the same level as they were in Sunday’s poll from the firm for the Sun’s News International…

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PB Night hawks is now open

PB Night hawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re thinking I Don’t Like Mondays, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk Tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) Tim Montgomerie channels his inner Dan Hodges, Five reasons why Ed Miliband might be easier to beat than Gordon Brown Occasional…

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Liverpool, Wavertree : A Historical Tale of Caution

Liverpool, Wavertree : A Historical Tale of Caution

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Constituency splits like this could make a LAB majority that bit more challenging http://t.co/ZnJKohMyZh pic.twitter.com/jzEreXoGgU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2013 Harry Hayfield looks back at “breakaway” candidates Independents have had a remarkably successful run in the last few general elections. Despite the fact that both Dai Davies (Ind, Blaenau Gwent) and Dr. Richard Taylor (Health Concern, Wyre Forest) lost their seats at the last election, they have been the latest in a long line of Independents who have managed…

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Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improve In the Electoral Calculus monthly GE2015 prediction

Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improve In the Electoral Calculus monthly GE2015 prediction

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LAB majority prediction from Electoral Calculus down from 92 to 74 following 4% average decline in UKIP poll share pic.twitter.com/3UwLUREYmb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2013 Martin Baxter’s “poll of polls” has UKIP down 4 Each month the Cambridge turned city mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus since the mid 1990s, Martin Baxter, publishes his latest general election projection based on his polling average applied to his Commons seat prediction model. The latest is in the table above. He…

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