And now Marf on the loons…
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Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Survation poll
The changes shown are from Survation’s poll just before the May 2 local elections. Interestingly most of the change appears to have been direct CON>UKIP switch. Survation came under some strong criticism last year for prompting for Ukip in the same way that they prompt for the other main parties. The way things have developed since then suggests that they were right. Labour and the Lib Dems will be relatively comfortable with these numbers because the blue team is taking…
PaddyPower offering betting market on whether Cameron will face a leadership challenge
What does this say about Dave’s current position Full details of the “Will Cameron face aleadership challenge?” betting from PaddyPower. bit.ly/I8PkIO See. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013 There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015. My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this…
My 7-1 and 10-1 bets that Cameron will be the first leader to go are starting to look promising
Great value bet at Stan James. Cameron 10/1 to be first leader to leave pre-general election. Dave’s most at risk. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 Alas good prices don’t last long. Since I got on yesterday the odds on this bet have now tightened to 6/1. Last October I placed a 7/1 bet with William Hill that Cameron would be the first of the three leaders to go. That, unlike the Stan James bet, is not restricted…
It’s going to be challenging for Cameron to appeal to both 2010 LDs and Ukip supporters at the same time
The issues voters told YouGov would impact on their vote.How do Tories appeal to both 2010 LDs &Ukip supporters? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 Above is a fascinating chart showing the issues that those sampled by YouGov said would influence their vote at the next general election. There are two columns, I would suggest, you should focus on: the views of Ukip supporters and those of 2010 LDs. These, of course, are where most the allegiance shifting…
Four very different pictures from the four overnight online polls for the Sunday papers
@msmithsonpb getting some interesting spreads in polling now — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) May 19, 2013 The Tories are seen as being much more divided than LAB 73% tell the latest YouGov survey that the Tories are divided with just 10% saying united. 29% said LAB united to 36% saying divided — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 In the Sunday Telelgraph/ICM Wisdom Index those polled are asked to predict the percentages for the four main parties. Note that…
Yet another pollster has LAB dropping to the mid-30s
And ComRes online has Ukip up to a record 19% for any firm ComRes leader ratings see Dave drop to new low & EdM to new high Amongst other questions If a party wants my support at the next general election, it is important to me that they offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU Agree: 49% Disagree: 27% Don’t know: 24% Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election Agree: 31% Disagree: 37%…
TSE on Making Your Mind Up on who to back at Eurovision.
Whilst the polls show Brits remain cynical about Eurovision and think it is all about politics, some of us enjoy Eurovision for that reason, for the music and the betting opportunities. With the elimination of the Former Yugoslavian states of Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia in the semi finals, and Bosnia and Herzegovina withdrawing from the contest, due to financial reasons, there’s a potential for less Balkan bloc voting this time around which could make the final result more open. There are many…