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Month: May 2013

Two years before an election, how much of a lead does the Opposition have.

Two years before an election, how much of a lead does the Opposition have.

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The one thing I’ve most read on British politics in recent months, is that Labour should be doing better, What the below graph shows is how much of a lead in voting intentions the opposition has two years before an election with Ipsos-Mori (note the figure for Margaret Thatcher is from March 1977, a little under 26 months before an election) As we can see, generally speaking most oppositions have a lead two years before an election, the exceptions being…

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Polling averages and changes with the Phone Pollsters since January

Polling averages and changes with the Phone Pollsters since January

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Without rehearsing the discussions on PB on why some of us prefer phone pollsters, in recent days, a few posters have asked me to revive the PB polling average. I’ve slightly modified from what happened in the past. What I’ve done is average the monthly phone polls from January this year, month by month, since ending of Populus’ contract with the Times, we only have three regular monthly phone polls, The ICM for The Guardian, Ipsos-Mori’s regular political monitor, and…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation A great philosopher once wrote, Drop in, relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, you should Move any mountain to start posting. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) Lib Dems announce “The 2014 local and European elections are hugely important, so I’m putting one of our best…

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ComRes online Westminster VI poll

ComRes online Westminster VI poll

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Following on from the release of the ComRes’ European Election VI for Open Europe yesterday, today Open Europe have released the Westminster voting intention poll that was carried out at the same time. The changes are from the last ComRes online poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, The Conservatives will be worried that their polling has slipped into the mid 20s, only six points ahead of UKIP, those survation polls with the Conservatives only 2% ahead of…

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Is Philip Hammond on maneuvers, and should you be backing him as next out of the cabinet?

Is Philip Hammond on maneuvers, and should you be backing him as next out of the cabinet?

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In recent months, Philip Hammond has been offering his views on a range of topics, from Philip Hammond: cut welfare not troops  to Gay marriage laws have created ‘real sense of anger says Philip Hammond and finally, on that perennial fault line for the Conservative party, when he said, he would vote to leave the European Union which led to a rebuke from the Prime Minister. Following those interventions, the Sunday Telegraph reported over the weekend that Members of the Prime Minister’s inner circle have…

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PB Night hawks is now open

PB Night hawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’ve had a Blue Monday, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events. If you’ve always been a lurker, Get Ready, this thread is for you, you’ll have a New Order in your life, if you start posting, I’m sure you’ll have a Fine Time. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) MPs declare £7m income…

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Comres: European Election poll

Comres: European Election poll

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Comres has conducted a poll for Open Europe on the European elections next year, the changes are from the European elections in 2009, The fieldwork was from the 22nd until the 24th of May, and 2003 adults were surveyed UKIP will be delighted with this poll, the Tories will be alarmed to be polling at 21% but delighted they’re only 2% behind Labour. The Lib Dems are polling higher than they did in 2009. The other salient parts (from the…

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Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?

Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?

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New PB thread, Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surgewww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2013 A little over a week ago, there was a report in The Times (££) talking about UKIP’s future fundraising plans. In a significant re-casting of its pitch to would-be supporters, the party is asking voters to “lend” their support for next year’s European elections but to give no further commitment. To achieve this, they will set up a special bank account, the…

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