The map above shows the 2010 General election results, and shows Labour’s lack of seats in the South, a couple of years ago, the always perceptive Antifrank made this observation, which stuck in the mind, and puts the map into context Labour did appallingly in the south of England. In the south east, south west and eastern England combined, it won 10 seats. There were 197 on offer. Holding the 32 seats it lost in these regions in 2010 would have…
According to reports yesterday the Conservative Party wants to increase its efforts to woo ethnic voters ahead of the election. This, alongside gay marriage, appears to be the second lesson George Osborne took from the recent US Presidential election. The Independent understands the initial aim seems to be to increase the number of minority parliamentary candidates. Conservatives currently have 11 MPs from an ethnic minority background compared to Labour who have 13. The Liberal Democrats, somewhat incredibly, have zero. It…
As we are a few days away from the fortieth anniversary of The United Kingdom joining the EU, the Guardian has some polling by ICM on the EU. The public mood of Euroscepticism is hardening, according to an exclusive Guardian/ICM poll that finds 51% of respondents would vote to take Britain out of the EU, against just 40% who say they would vote to stay in. As the Guardian notes This marks a turnaround from similar polls conducted in the earliest years of…
William Hill have some markets on some events that may occur in 2013. Being an economic optimist, I’ve backed the UK to lose its AAA credit rating and interest rates to go up (based largely on this article) I’m also backing Andrew Mitchell and Chris Huhne to be back in cabinet and Silvio Berlusconi to be Italian PM. Which ones will you be backing? 4/7        UK To Lose Triple-A Credit Rating (5/4 Not To) 1/1        3p Increase In Fuel Duty In…
New ICM polling for Guardian find 62% now in favour of gay marriage compared with 45% in March.m.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/d… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2012
The polling story of 2012: The CON post-budget decline and the rise of UKIP www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55077 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2012 Remember pre-budget when Farage’s party was on 1%? While putting the above chart together one set of numbers stood out – the March 2012 ICM poll for the Guardian published on the day before George Osborne’s budget in March. The Tories had a lead of 3% over LAB while UKIP were at their lowest point for the…
ICM pie chart showing December 2012 poll for Guardian with changes on January 2012. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2012 Back in March 2012, the day before George Osborne’s budget, ICM was showing a 3% CON lead. Now, for third month in a row, LAB is 8% ahead. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2012 The big political event of the month – Osborne’s so called “trap” on capped benefits seems to have had no impact on voting…
Across 1. Bishop is ultimately ridiculed – described by Cameron unfairly as man holding a stick and wearing fancy dress (6,6) 8. Right away Blair stopped one Labour source of wealth (3,4) 9. Physicist has wager in play (7) 11. Society rejected by European like Johnson (7) 12. Metal small safe holds money (7) 13. President’s film broadcast (5) 14. Old province where art is destroyed by wanton, heartless vandals (9) 16. Give elector an alternative (9) 19. Live down…