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Month: October 2012

A Marf Cartoon and a guest slot from James Kelly on polling and the Scottish referendum

A Marf Cartoon and a guest slot from James Kelly on polling and the Scottish referendum

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Have the polls “consistently” shown that Scots are opposed to independence? Something that I know has privately frustrated the SNP in recent weeks and months is their perception that the media, especially south of the border but to some extent in Scotland as well, have bought into the anti-independence side’s narrative about what the polls on the referendum are showing. Newsnight’s coverage of the “treaty” between the Scottish and UK governments might stand as a case in point. Kirsty Wark…

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As the new boundaries are published Clegg says there will be NO party funding deal and he will be voting against

As the new boundaries are published Clegg says there will be NO party funding deal and he will be voting against

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Clegg rules out any “deal on the boundaries” and states that he will be voting against. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2012 The Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, has just faced the commons for the first time since his announcement in August that his party will not be voting for the boundary changes when they come to the house in late 2014. He made clear that the state funding for parties in exchange for the boundaries, as being…

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Exactly three weeks to go and Romney has a national lead of just one tenth of one percent

Exactly three weeks to go and Romney has a national lead of just one tenth of one percent

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There’s a must-read article by Nate Silver We are now just 21 days away from the November 6th elections for the next President of the United States and as the Real Clear Politics chart above shows the battle is extraordinarily tight. Nationally the lead that Romney built up following the first debate on October 3rd has started to whittle away – though he’s still ahead by a whisker. But as has been said so often during this campaign it’s not…

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Punters still divided on whether Mitchell will go or not

Punters still divided on whether Mitchell will go or not

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William Hill offer 5/6 on Andrew Mitchell going by end of month and 5/6 that he’ll stay. It he going to tough this out? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2012 It looks as though he’ll brazen this one out? I took the bet before the weekend that he would be out and am surprised that he’s still there. What could be unsettling is if Labour use some of their allocated debating time to discuss their motion that £1,000…

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Obama is edging back in the national polls

Obama is edging back in the national polls

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Obama vs. Romney: National trial heats . . . twitter.com/pollreport/sta… — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) October 15, 2012 The betting moves a notch back to Barack After a week and a half when all the polling has been in one direction there are just some signs that Obama is recovering from the blows he received from his lacklustre performance in the first Presidential Debate. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll has the President leading by 49% to 46% which compares with 49-47…

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There is no hope of a deal on the Tory boundary bonus in exchange for state funding of parties

There is no hope of a deal on the Tory boundary bonus in exchange for state funding of parties

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Tomorrow’s proposals will not be implemented If the Tory back-bench rebellion on Lords reform had not happened in July then tomorrow would have been a big day for election watchers because of the publication of the revised electoral map for England. Rallings & Thrasher, Anthony Wells and others would have been going through the refined proposals to produce new projections of the impact of the plan. No doubt work will still be done but without the same urgency or expectation…

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A reminder about the party and some site announcements

A reminder about the party and some site announcements

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Next PB get together at Dirty Dicks: Oct 25th from 6.30pm Thanks to Fat Steve for once again organising this. We are having another informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station in London. We have a dedicated are in this bustling ancient pub which has proved to be a good venue. Things start from about 6.30pm though a few of us, like on recent occasions, will be arriving there a bit…

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Can a billion dollars of pester power make up for a lack of enthusiasm?

Can a billion dollars of pester power make up for a lack of enthusiasm?

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Edmund in Tokyo on the Obama fight-back One big question about the presidential election has been whether Republicans enthusiastic about defeating Obama and Democrats merely inclined to keep him, Romney will win the election by differential turnout. The Republicans often poll better among likely voters than registered voters, the combination of a weak economy and an uninspiring debate performance now puts the gap at as much as 5%. But in an election where 6 billion dollars worth of persuation is…

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