Gallup have released some polling, one of which asks, Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November.

Barack Obama 58% (+2%)

Mitt Romney 36%  (nc)

The changes are from the last time they asked the question in May.

Given the closeness in the Voting Intention polling, the 22% lead is interesting, and for Mitt Romney, probably disheartening, given “Americans’ prediction of who will win is significant since they have generally been correct in predicting the winner of past presidential elections.”

The Republican convention may give Romney a boost, but Hurricane Isaac may overshadow the convention.

At the time of writing, the best odds on Obama or Romney to win were to be found on Betfair.