Is this a case where the betting is predictive? The government is odds-on to avoid defeat in the Commons on the Lords’ timetable motion according to Ladbrokes. The book opened at an entirely level 5/6 each of two but all the money so far is against the defeat, forcing the price into 4/5. Those who think the government will lose can take bigger odds of evens. It also remains odds-on at 1/2 that no direct elections for the House of…
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@thetomslatter It is reckoned that if the 2010 election had been fought on the planned boundaries then the Tories might have won a majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2012
Is she the woman Ann Romney was hinting about? Ever since Ann Romney’s July 4th TV interview in which she hinted that her husband might choose a woman as his running mate there’s been a lot of speculation over who that could be. The questions are how much can we read into her comment and who could she be talking about? One piece I found persuasive is this from the respected commentator William Kristol in which he looks at the chances of…
Watch this 40 minute lecture from Michael Thrasher Professor Michael Thrasher, famed for being part of the Rallings & Thrasher duo, has produced an interesting video lecture on the bias that exists within the electoral system. It goes on for 40 minutes and is well worth watching by anybody interested in the UK electoral process. By way of introduction Michael Thrasher writes:- “An important feature of the UK voting system that causes a great deal of confusion is the operation…
Henry G on whether the party is on the right lines John Major’s decision to privatise British Rail is probably one of the least popular privatisations of the Thatcher-Major years. I don’t know anyone who enjoys rail travel in this country anymore. The tickets are extortionate, the services are fragmented and the feculent odours of Virgin Cross Country train is not quite the private sector innovation the public were promised. Yet for 13 years New Labour saw next to no…
Does Dave need an attack dog? Following my early morning post on George Osborne I received an email from a Tory friend. He wrote:- “As I see it, the problem between Osborne and Balls is an extension of a more broad problem for George and Dave. The lack of an attack dog within the Cabinet.” Mrs T had Tebbit and Parkinson etc. Blair and Brown had Blunkett, Reid, Balls etc. etc. The PM & Chancellor have no alternative to put…
Could his obsession with Balls be his undoing? Yesterday’s fierce clashes in the Commons between Osborne and Balls have raised further questions about the future of the chancellor coming as it does after what are widely regarded as his budget cock-ups According to a report behind the paywall in the Times there’s growing unease amongst Tory MPs over his approach to the LIBOR scandal and the way that he’s allowed his response to ” be dominated by personal attacks on…