NightHawks – as we go into extra time
The tension continues
Dave re-takes the lead in the YouGov leader ratings
Does he do better when he’s out of the country? Cameron’s YouGov approval ratings move to best since March.. Now down to minus 18%. In May was -31%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 Miliband’s YouGov approval ratings drop 2 to -27%. Last week he was = to Dave — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 Clegg’s YouGov approval ratings improve by 2 to minus 53% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 YouGov – Tories take 7% lead…
V-P Betting: PB’s exclusive money-saving guide
RealClearPolitics It’s a mugs game – DON’T BET With the Republican nomination settled and the White House election not taking place until November one of the big stories at the moment is who will Romney pick as his running mate. Betting’s been quite lively with one new name coming into the frame after another. It all seems so logical – Mitt, it is said, might have problems with Hispanic voters hence the “obvious” choice becomes Mario Rubio. Another day and…
How long can the coalition survive?
What’s your view – will they stick it out? How long has the coalition got left? 6 months 12 months 18 months 24 months 30 months It will survive until the May 2015 election Surprisingly I couldn’t find a betting market. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
David Herdson on how Londoners used their 2nds prefs
What are the electoral lessons to be learned? The vote for London mayor is unusual in many ways, one of which is that because of the electronic counting system, all second preferences are identified and recorded. Last week, the full second preference breakdown for May’s vote was released, and is well worth analysing. Interestingly, most people who voted for Boris or Ken also cast a second preference despite the almost certain knowledge that their first choice would be in the…
Welcome to Friday’s PB NightHawks cafe
The best overnight political conversation Have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Suddenly Gove is being talked of as leader…
Should you be taking the Ladbrokes 16/1? Anybody who watched BB1’s “The Week” last night will have heard Michael Portillo talk in strong terms about Michael Gove’s chances of becoming next Tory leader. Portillo described the education secretary as a “serious candidate for the future“. His great strength was that “He knows what he is about, he knows what he wants and these are things that people crave.” Certainly compared with others at the top of the betting Gove must…
Henry G Manson looks at the PM’s tax avoidance responses?
Has he walked into a trap that could have been avoided? I was surprised to see the Prime Minister wade into smug comic Jimmy Carr’s tax affairs. It was clearly going to be a short-term populist move to speak of “morally wrong†tax affairs, but it seemed strange. He’s not the only one. In his Budget this year George Osborne went further calling tax avoidance “morally repugnantâ€. These are strong words and no doubt they both believe the public will…