Projected national share of vote in UK #localelections: Lab 39%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 16%, Others 14% bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… #bbcvote2012 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 4, 2012 650 key wards:PNS – Con 31. Lab 39. LD 16. Oth 14Change on 2008: Con -9%, Lab +17%, LD -8%Change on 2011: Con -4%, Lab +3%, LD n/c — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) May 4, 2012 Where UKIP’s vote is up more than 10 points, Conservatives are doing about 5 points worse, says election…
A time-line based on what results we’ll see first Thanks to the Tory election analyst, Rob Hayward for this: CON-LD seats. Shire districts (not in terms of change of control but are the Tories gaining seats or not where they did last year) St Albans, Southend, Milton Keynes Later (but intermingled with CON-LD areas) will come CON-LAB contests. (Again not necessarily change of control) Plymouth, Southampton, Walsall, Harlow, Thurrock, Derby, Dudley Very much later and into tomorrow LD-LAB. With many…
But which one will be most accurate? There another London mayoral poll out, an online survey from Opinium – the online firm which never seems to want to communicate with me. (Hi guys could you put me on your email list?). It has Boris 43%/Ken 37%/Paddick 7%/Jones 6%/Benita 3%/ UKIP 3%. Opinium’s figures for the top two are pretty close to YouGov and the overall picture from five different firms is that Boris will be staying at City Hall. In…
Boris 43/Ken 38/Paddick 7/Benita 4/UKIP 4/Jones 3 After the second prefs have been allocated YouGov has Boris beating Ken by 53 to 47%. A big question is whether YouGov will continue its stunning success with this particular election. In both 2004 and 2008 its final poll got the outcome correct to within 1%. The poll contrast sharply with the one phone poll of the campaign by Populus which had a Boris 1st preference lead of 12%. The internet firm polled…
“..If he wins tomorrow, he will be the most popular Tory in the country, the saviour of the Cameroons but not one of them, and better placed than ever for an eventual run at the top job. They will hate their debt to him almost as much as the prospect that he may one day be their boss. Be in no doubt: for some very senior members of his own party, the only thing worse than Boris losing tomorrow is…
LSE expert Tony Travers revises predictions for tomorrow: CON losses 500-600 not 250-350/LD 100-200 not 250-350/LAB gains 700-800 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012 LSE expert Tony Travers tells Times that Lib Dems won’t do so badly ‘cos Tories in “such trouble” — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012 @AllanHeron I think Travers just talking about England&Wales. Not sure about Scotland. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012
Or will the 2011 dynamics be repeated? Last year’s local elections, the first to be held since the formation of the coalition, transformed the political landscape. The table above, prepared by Professor Colin Rallings for last month’s Political Studies Association briefing, sets out what happened in six different categories of council seats. The big picture from twelve months ago was that the Tories lost out to LAB but were able to make that up with gains from the Lib Dems…
2008 Mayoral Polls Date BORIS CON % KEN LAB % PADDICK % Actual Result 01/05/08 42 36 10 You Gov 01/05/08 43 36 13 You Gov 28/04/08 46 35 12 MRUK/Sunday Times 27/04/08 43 44 9 Ipsos MORI/Unison 24/04/08 38 41 12 YouGov 18/04/08 44 37 12 MRUK/Sunday Times 14/04/08 44 45 9 YouGov 11/04/08 45 39 12 Which will be closer YouGov or Populus? The polls, as I am sure we are all aware, are divided over the London…