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Ohio: Romney 37, Santorum 36, Gingrich 15, Paul 11. Flip a coin… — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) March 5, 2012 This seems like it could be a key stat- Romney up 40-23 with folks who decided in the last few days in Ohio. — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) March 5, 2012 With new PPP poll, our model now shows Romney and Santorum each with exactly a 50% chance to win OH. nyti.ms/xXzuZc — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) March 5, 2012 Tennessee: Santorum 34, Romney 29,…

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Why doesn’t Andrew Neil chair QuestionTime? I’ve just watched the Andrew Neil interview on the Sunday Politics with Alex Salmond. This was brilliantly handled as you’d expect from Neil who must be the UK’s top political interviewer. What I can’t understand is why Neil is put to one side for grand occasions. He famously was cast out onto a pleasure boat on the River Thames at the last election (wasn’t that total rubbish?) and he’s never given a chance being…

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Will it be 2014 – or earlier? There’s an ongoing row between the SNP and the coalition about the timing of Scotland’s independence referendum. Salmond wants to defer it until October 2014 while the government would like it in 2013 when all the legal processes have been gone through. Clearly both sides see advantage in their positions. The UK government thinks an earlier date will make it harder for Salmond who clearly thinks the opposite. London has to play this…

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NYT NEWS ALERT: Mitt Romney Wins Washington State Presidential Caucuses, A.P. Reports — The New York Times (@nytimes) March 4, 2012 Santorum needs some wins in caucus states, or to win OH by a blowout margin, to make the race genuinely interesting post Super Tuesday. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) March 4, 2012 The Mitt Romney band-wagon keeps rolling After his wins last Tuesday in Michigan and Arizona the front-runner in the GOP race, Mitt Romney, had an emphatic victory in…

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Will Mitt add Washington state to his victory list? Later on tonight we should start to get results from Washington state where caucuses have been taking place. There’s an 8 hour time-gap with the UK and the meetings were scheduled for the afternoon. The latest polling had Romney ahead. My piece tonight for the Telegraph on the US election is here. @MikeSmithsonOGH

How does the UK get a winning entry again? The decision to have septuagenarian Engelbert Humperdinck represent the UK at Eurovision 2012 has to be one of the bolder picks of recent years and certainly represents a break from the ‘young and pretty’ of recent years. It may yet prove to be an inspired choice but is far more likely to end in tears. Humperdinck does apparently have a fan base in Eastern Europe – though how many of these…

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Is he denying Santorum frontrunner status? For all the time, money and energy spent in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, not all that much has been decided in the first two months. The states that have voted so far account for only about three hundred delegates, and the final allocation of some of them isn’t settled. March is an entirely different prospect. After Washington today (43 delegates), Super Tuesday sees states worth well over 400 delegates go to…

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#horsegate cont: “In one story you have the PM, a Murdoch crony, the Met and a horse – which in the UK is in itself a symbol of privilege.” — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) March 2, 2012 Anthony King, Essex prof, on #horsegate: “The intrinsic importance of this story is nil but the symbolic importance is immense.”… — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) March 2, 2012 @MikeSmithsonOGH