Betfair Politics Should Ken be better than a 36% chance? All the polling in the past couple of months has had May’s London mayoral election as what US pollsters term – “a statistical tie”. Ken’s been up by 2 and so has Boris but the lead is toggling between the two. The latest has the Tory in the lead. In the national polls Labour is in a vastly difference position than four years ago when their share was mostly in…
Can a Mitt Michigan victory answer his doubters The latest Michigan surveys from Public Policy Polling suggests that Mitt Romney is heading for a victory in his home state of Michigan. A fortnight ago the firm had Santorum 15% ahead there. The pollster is superb for getting information out early and the latest numbers are based on fieldwork last night which only closed two or three hours ago. It also uses Twitter very effectively. Mitt Romney’s at 39% to 37%…
This is our overnight open thread. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
LD peer Lord Oakeshott says if the Tories renege on Lords reform then the new boundaries won”t go through.bbc.in/zmHzhp — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) February 26, 2012 LD peer links Lords reform to the boundary changes Two days ago I suggested that the coalition could collapse over the house of Lords reform programme agreed between the Tories and the Lib Dems in the 2010 coalition agreement. My post stated that if Tory MPs rebelled then the Lib Dems could pull the…
Was this like Gordon Brown’s “Elvis” moment? On Wednesday night Mitt Romney had a big success in the effort to stop Rick Santorum in the final candidates’ TV debate of the campaign. Almost all the polling in the immediate aftermath had Mitt improving his position in relation to Rick Santorum. Nate Silver reckons that it has given him a 4% boost. Then he went on to Detroit to make what was billed as a big speech on the economy. The…
How’s it going to do? The big news about the news overnight will be the launch of the Sun on Sunday which seems to have been developed at break-neck speed. Given it was less than a fortnight ago that Rupert Murdoch made his intentions clear it is really amazing that we have got to this stage so quickly. Part of this is, of course, a reaction to the dramatic arrests at the paper earlier in the month. This is Rupert…
Ipsos-MORI Notice how the tide turned after his June 2007 exit? The February issues index from Ipsos-MORI came out a couple of days ago with the firm always producing a range of historical charts so we can see trends. MORI has been asking for 37 years in exactly the same way an unprompted question on what issues interviewees sees as the “most important facing Britain today”. As can seen the economy moved up sharply in 2008 and has remained high….
Are we in for a more level playing field after Super Tuesday? Ever since the 2012 presidential election campaign got underway, Mitt Romney has had the best-funded campaign. That fact, combined with his position as consistently one of the two top-polling candidates and his opponents real weaknesses, has always enabled him to go negative against his principle opponent at the time. It hasn’t always worked. Caucuses tend to have different dynamics and much lower turnouts, meaning a broad but shallow…