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Month: September 2011

Could an EU referendum go the same way as AV?

Could an EU referendum go the same way as AV?

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Do Brits generally vote for the status quo? The wonderful Archbishop Cramner blog has an insightful post in which he poses the question of whether the much sought after referendum on leaving the EU could end up with the same outcome as on AV last May. He argues: “..The pro-AV campaign was disunited, poorly articulated, badly led, painfully patronised and hopelessly disorganised. Against all that, its generous and credible funding went absolutely nowhere. Similarly, on the matter of an EU…

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Greetings PB Nighthawks from the Brum PB gathering

Greetings PB Nighthawks from the Brum PB gathering

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I’ve just got back from a splendid PB gathering in the centre of Birmingham. A total of 13 PBers took part and we finished up having a curry. In the picture from left to right are StJohn, Nick Palmer, Firefly, Corporeal, Allenbrooke, Aaron and Adrian Bailey. UPDATE: Not in the picture are PollyB, Tom Robinson, Icarus, Chris A and Park Town Boy. Including myself I think that makes 13. We started at 6.30pm and I’ve just arrived back in my…

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Unemployment moves up sharply on the MORI issues index

Unemployment moves up sharply on the MORI issues index

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Ipsos-MORI Details of the latest Ipsos-MORI issues index are shown above and a big mover is unemployment. Another big mover is “morality – individual behaviour” prompted, surely, by last month’s riots. This survey has been carried out by MORI in the same way for well over three decades and what makes it unique is that responses are not prompted. Interviewees are first asked about what they consider to be the main issue that is facing the country and then to…

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Has Labour got a Lib Dem target problem?

Has Labour got a Lib Dem target problem?

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New English seats: LD first with LAB second MAJ % Birmingham Yardley BC 0.1 Norwich South BC 0.7 Willesden BC 1.1 Sheffield South West BC 4.4 Hornsey and Wood Green 7.7 Bermondsey and Waterloo BC 18.7 Bristol West BC 24.2 Where should the red team focus its efforts? Thanks to poster “oldLabour”” on the previous thread for going through the Anthony Wells list of 2010 notional results for England with the proposed new boundaries. Download Anthony’s full spreadsheet here. One…

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Is the coalition now set to run the full course?

Is the coalition now set to run the full course?

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Will Weathercock’s big bets be losers? PB regulars will know that over the past 18 months one of the site’s most long-standing posters, Weathercock, has been predicting doom and gloom for the coalition and agreed a range of wagers that it will all have broken down by the end of October 2011. Well judging by the polling and the mood here at the LD conference in Birmingham the chances of an early break-down of the coalition look slim. Weathercock will…

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Is Tim Farron the Lib Dem Rick Perry?

Is Tim Farron the Lib Dem Rick Perry?

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Is his appeal restricted to the party faithful? Watching Tim Farron’s speech to the Lib Dem conference and the enthusiastic reaction he got from many delegates I got a feeling that maybe we were seeing a yellow version of Rick Perry. Farron’s big moment was when he declared that the coalition was temporary – a message that seemed to resonate. Perry, of course, is the governor of Texas whose entry to the Republican nomination race last month has been startling….

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Did Nick get too close to Dave?

Did Nick get too close to Dave?

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Channel 4 Is a bit of difference more acceptable to both parties? With the Lib Dem conference in Birmingham the most extraordinary thing, I’d suggest, is that there is little speculation about Clegg’s leadership. There is, however, an under-current amongst delegates here that in the early days of the coalition that their leader did get too close and the perception persists. Having said that it less than six months ago since the famous “microphone gaffe”, when Nick Clegg wondered how…

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If ICM did the daily poll would Miliband be finished?

If ICM did the daily poll would Miliband be finished?

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How much is his survival dependent on YouGov? Last Monday HenryG Manson, our regular Labour columnist, posted the following about the Labour leadership:- “There is no way in the world Ed Miliband will be allowed to lose the next election. If it looks like he cannot win then he’ll be gone. MPs, grassroots and unions all desperately want to win outright and failing that be largest party. I’ve never known the movement soon focused and hungry – more so than…

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