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Month: September 2011

London Statto looks at Labour’s planned new franchise

London Statto looks at Labour’s planned new franchise

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Is giving 3% to party “supporters” a gimmick This morning we should get the result of the vote on the proposal to open the party’s leadership election to “registered supporters” as well as the three existing sections of the electoral college – party members, MPs/MEPs and, ofcourse, the affiliates (essentially, as we know, the trades unions). The proposal is that the registered supporters will have 3% of the vote once a threshold of 50,000 registered supporters is reached, increasing to…

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Good evening all in the PB Nighthawks Cafe..

Good evening all in the PB Nighthawks Cafe..

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Welcome to another less formal overnight thread One of the things that was said at last Monday’s PB gathering in Birmingham is how much the PB Nighthawks Cafe is welcomed by new and occasional posters. One attendee told how daunting some PB discussions can feel and this provides an oportunity for something more relaxed. Mostly it’s settled down okay and we have seen a fair number of first time posters. So have good evening. Tomorrow is Monday and only eight…

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The money goes on Murphy on Labour’s first day

The money goes on Murphy on Labour’s first day

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Could he help save Labour’s Scottish seats? The first day of the Labour conference has seen a fair bit of activity in the betting on who’ll be next leader. The focus has been the shadow defence spokesman, Jim Murphy. With William Hill he started the day at 25/1 – he’s now priced at 14/1. PaddyPower had him opening at 20/1 – that’s now tightened to 12/1. Victor Chandler also started at 20/1, then moved to 14/1 and now have Murphy…

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Where Will Ed lead Labour?

Where Will Ed lead Labour?

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One year in, has he an election-winning strategy? The opening of Labour’s conference today marks the first anniversary of Ed Miliband’s surprise election victory. That year has had its share of ups and downs – solid and continuing leads in most polls published, healthy gains in the local elections, avoiding blame for Labour’s debacle in Scotland or the AV result for example. He’s also consolidated his own position as leader and looks well set to lead Labour through to the…

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Have you or would you ever vote for a party that is not your own?

Have you or would you ever vote for a party that is not your own?

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Would you ever vote for a party other than that which is your primary allegiance? Tick as many as apply. NO I always vote the same way. YES To stop another party winning in my seat YES If I was not happy with my own party’s incumbent/candidate YES To bring my party to its senses over a particular issue YES If thought another party’s candidate would make a better MP/councillor etc YES Another reason not listed Not applicable. I have…

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Miliband now slips BELOW Clegg in ICM’s leader ratings

Miliband now slips BELOW Clegg in ICM’s leader ratings

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Can Ed turn thing round at his conference? As well as the voting intention figures in the latest ICM for the Guardian there are the firm’s leadership ratings which ask the question of whether the PM/leaders/etc are doing a good or bad job. Cameron sees a substantial boost but the biggest winner in terms of change is Nick Clegg. As we saw in the previous thread the voting intention figures had the Lib Dems down three points which must have…

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Into the weekend with an ICM poll and the PB Nighthawks cafe

Into the weekend with an ICM poll and the PB Nighthawks cafe

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New ICM poll has CON 37 (nc): LAB 38 (+2): LD 14 (-3) I’m out tonight and am doing this from my phone. The survey for the Guardian has been published this evening and sees Labour back into the lead for the first time since June. The Tories are down a point and the Lib Dems down three – an outcome which must be a disappointment given that the fieldwork took place in the aftermath of their conference. It’s very…

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Is Perry’s problem that he’s not very good?

Is Perry’s problem that he’s not very good?

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Intrade prices The money moves from the Texan after latest debate There’ve been sharp moves in the GOP nominee betting following the latest TV debate between the declared contenders. Mitt Romney has now tightened to 5/4 on Betfair while Rick Perry’s price has moved out. The Intrade market, on which a lot of US-based punters gamble, has Romney’s chances at 42% while Perry has slipped to 32%. In the debate in Orlando all the other candidates made him the focus…

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