The chart shows the Labour leads from the most recent surveys of the pollsters that have reported in the past month. YouGov which reports five days a week changes all the time though it tends to show much higher Labour shares than the others. This year it has had Labour in the 40s in every poll bar one – the survey that was taken on election day, May 5th. ICM, by contrast, has not had Labour above 39% in any…
We haven’t got the details yet from the Sunday Times main lead but it appears to be linked to the story that’s been running all week over driving licence penalty points. The Mail on Sunday reports what it’s been doing:- “When The Mail on Sunday tried to reach the Energy Secretary last weekend, seeking a response to damaging allegations that he had pressurised someone to ‘take the points’ for a speeding offence, he failed to return calls until 1am on…
And Clegg’s winning the NHS “credit race”? There’s a new ComRes online poll just out for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror. It’s headline figures follow other recent polls and show that Labour’s lead is narrowing. These are the figures with comparisons on the last ComRes online poll:- Con 38% (+3) Lab 39% (nc) LD 11% (+1) Others 12% (-4) Amongst the non-VI findings there are some worrying numbers for the blue team on the Lansley NHS changes…
Should they have pushed for House of Lords reform instead? The comprehensive defeat for the Yes2AV campaign has caused much questioning from those who proposed the change: how could the campaign have been better fought? Was it on the wrong day? Was it too narrow in scope? How could the assertions from No have been better rebutted? – and so on. One question that does not seem to have been asked is the most fundamental of all: was it the…
Is he worth a 4/6 punt? Ladbrokes report that there have been “substantial wagers” that Chris Huhne will be next cabinet minster to depart and have now made him 4/6. The firm is also offered 1/3 on him surviving until the end of the month and 2/1 that he won’t. If you think he’s going then that last bet offers far more value the next exit one. We’ve been here before of course with information from the same source and…
Will electors vote against the party they want to stop? The above chart seeks to graphically represent data in Denis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s The British General Election of 2010 showing the mean vote changes of the main parties in different categories of seats based on which came first and second in 2005. In doing it gives an interesting picture of what happened with, perhaps, some pointers to next time. The Labour vote showed the largest range with, interestingly, the…
More of Marf’s PB cartoons can be found at LondonSketchbook.com. Many PBers have bought either originals or prints which make good presents. Note Tomorrow I’ll be putting a donate button on the site – part of the proceeds will go to supporting Marf’s work. Mike Smithson
His entry: 32.02% against the actual 32.1% – so pretty Daan close! The PB/William Hill AV prediction competition has been won by Daan Arroo who is a first-year physics student at Durham University. He now receives the prize of £1,000 worth of free bets with William Hill. He tells me that he and voted for Labour and YES and goes on: “While I would have liked to see our voting system changed (although I’d have preferred changing it to STV…