The Ipsos-MORI Monitor for April is just out and has the Tories on 40% – three up on the general election last May and at their highest level with the pollster since then. The blues are now level-legging with Labour and this is the first poll from the firm since October with Labour not in the lead. As can be seen from the chart the firm has the yellows continuing to decline amongst those “certain to vote”. MORI headline figures…
One of YouGov’s fortnightly trackers is to ask about voters’ perceptions of the three main parties including a question on leaders. Panellists are asked “Which party do you think it applies to most – the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats? – “Is led by people of real ability”. You would expect those sampled to choose the leader of the party that they say they’ll vote for and that certainly happens with the Tories with 70% choosing Cameron. I’d never…
There’s the latest YouGov AV tracker out for the Sun which shows a sharp move to NO compared with the internet firm’s last survey on the subject just three days ago. Then it had a one point NO lead – this evening the gap is 16 points. The margins is exactly the same as we saw in last night telephone poll from ICM for the Guardian. The next big AV poll should be a phone survey from Ipsos-MORI. That’ll be…
Is comfort-zone campaigning going to cost it the referendum? Yesterday’s big referendum events demonstrated again the reason why No is winning the campaign on AV: they are talking to themselves; their opponents are talking to the voters. The Yes leaders appear to have made no effort to gain any traction with voters to the right of centre. At the very minimum, they’ve not succeeded in doing so. Not a single Conservative has been paraded, nor has anyone from the Orange…
Was it a mistake to push for the vote on May 5th? A big debate while the legislation was going through parliament was whether it was right to hold the referendum on the same day as other elections. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their devolved general elections alongside the referendum on May 5th while in England there are local and mayoral elections in many areas but not all. As part of their poll ICM sought to distinguish between the…
Now will blue critics stop sniping at him? If the AV referendum does end up with an outcome close to last night’s ICM’s 58-42 to NO it will be a massive victory for David Cameron and an overwhelming vindication of his strategy of creating the coalition so he could take power last May. Ever since that event on May 11th 2010 the Tory right has been muttering against him and increasingly they’ve tried to dub him “an election loser” with…
Have ICM cracked the turnout question? Julian Glover has just tweeted that the new ICM/Guardian poll has (unadjusted) No 44%, Yes 33%, DK 23%, giving an (adjusted) lead of NO 58% vs YES 42%. This is a massive shift in the polling numbers from the pollster that many (including OGH Mike Smithson) regard as a gold-standard pollster. The Guardian write-up can be found here: key features are that the December ICM/Guardian poll had YES 6-points ahead, before NO drew level…
But will it favour YES or NO? The Guardian’s polling specialist, Julian Glover, has posted two intriguing tweets on tonight’s ICM poll for his paper which, extraordinarily will be the first non-online survey for two months on the referendum. It’s clear from the Glover Tweets that the ICM poll is going to be news though I can’t even guess which side will be benefiting. The poll will also be the first to incorporate Northern Ireland voters in its sample –…