Will he follow predecessors and stay till his mid-70s? Last night night I took part in a PoliticsHome poll of “Westminister insiders” on John Bercow’s chances of staying in the job for this parliament. Thinking about the question it is hard to see how he could be forced out if he was determined to stay. He’d brazen it out, surely, and it’s unlikely there would ever be a situation when a there’d be a majority of MPs willing to pass…
Could AV be introduced even if the country voted NO? So Monday’s vote (a squeaker at 219 Content vs 218 Not-content) in the House of Lords was on an amendment introduced by Lord Rooker, and read simply: “If less than 40% of the electorate vote in the referendum, the result shall not be binding” Ignoring for one moment the rights and wrongs of turnout thresholds, I’m not sure what impact this might have on the respective campaigns. My first thought…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition Angus Reid/ 25/01/11 37 21 Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 14/01/11 36 30 Actual wording on the ballot ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot Meanwhile YouGov moves more into line on the referendum In the past fortnight we’ve had new…
The Irish election: Part 1 In the 2007 Irish general election, Fianna Fáil got 41.6% of first-preference votes. If the opinion polls are to be believed, the party’s vote share in the coming election on 25th February is set to collapse to something between 15% and 18%. That is comparable to the infamous collapse of the vote of the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993, which saw that party wiped out from 169 seats in the Canadian Parliament to just…
Lurkers and posters alike make your predictions now With just twelve weeks to go before the May 5th election the bookmakers, William Hills have agreed to provide a competition prize of £1,000 of free bets to the PBer who makes the closest prediction to the AV referendum result. All you have got to do is to record on the thread below what you think the YES percentage will be to within two decimal points. The prize will got to the…
What are the lessons from the first encounter? I’ve just go round to looking at the coverage of this afternoon’s first clash between chancellor George Osborne and his new shadow, Ed Balls – an encounter that has been several years in the making. It was planned to have started in June 2009 but Gordon Brown found himself so weakened by the elections of that month that he had to keep Darling at the treasury. Then it could have been on…
Be careful before entering into private wagers There have been one or two instances recently of site regulars entering into private wagers with other posters on PB threads and then being unable to receive payment once the outcome is known. Can I suggest that you do not enter into such an arrangement unless all the parties are prepared to exchange, obviously off thread, their real names and personal contact details. In one recent case all a poster was able to…