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Month: February 2011

Has YouGov failed to keep up with the Mirror’s decline?

Has YouGov failed to keep up with the Mirror’s decline?

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Newspaper segments January 2011 segment circulation YouGov weighting (Mirror/Record=1) Circulation based weighting (Mirror/Record=1) YouGov weighting / Circulation based weighting Mail + Express 2,776,443 0.97 1.85 0.52 Daily Mirror/Daily Record 1,500,969 1 1 1 Sun+Star 3,736,133 1.38 2.49 0.55 Guardian+Independent+I 597,815 0.20 0.40 0.49 FT+Times+Telegraph 1,491,501 0.54 0.99 0.55 Should the pollster look urgently at its newspaper weightings A couple of weeks ago the former head pollster at ICM, Nick Sparrow, highlighted in his monthly PB column the reliance that pollsters…

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Angus Reid reports a 15 point lead for YES

Angus Reid reports a 15 point lead for YES

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 22 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot NO moves one point closer There a new Angus Reid AV referendum…

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Will Labour tribalists vote against the yellows or the blues?

Will Labour tribalists vote against the yellows or the blues?

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Could this determine the May 5 outcome? The general theory of referenda is that by the time people get to voting the issue can become less about what’s on the ballot paper and more about whether they want to make a statement about the government. That’s fine in conventional situations but what about current dilemma for Labour supporters – do they vote NO to punish “the traitor Clegg” or do they vote YES to try to damage the Tories? Given…

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Was it Labour peers who blinked first?

Was it Labour peers who blinked first?

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Why did their vote collapse in the final division? The big news from Westminster overnight was that the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill received the royal assent at 11.45 pm after the government won the final vote in the upper house overturning previous defeats. This means that the AV referendum will take place as planned on May 5th 2011 and there there will be NO turnout threshold – the last major point of contention. This followed an intensive couple…

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Is Ashdown right? Today’s moves could be a “coalition breaker”?

Is Ashdown right? Today’s moves could be a “coalition breaker”?

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How much notice should we take of the ex-leader? Reproduced above is the Tweet from Sky’s John Craig about his conversation with Paddy Ashdown. My main comment is that Ashdown’s backing for Nick Clegg was absolutely central to the coalition deal last May and his ongoing support has played a big part in keeping the Lib Dems on side. Paddy is a hugely influential figure within the party and if he stops supporting the coalition then it is only a…

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New ComRes poll has YES and NO level

New ComRes poll has YES and NO level

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But were respondents conditioned by earlier questions? There’s a new ComRes phone poll out on AV for Newsnight that suggests that voters are split on replacing the First Past the Post system with the Alternative Vote.. When asked do you want the UK to adopt the Alternative Vote system instead of the current First Past The Post system for electing MPs 41 percent agree while the same amount disagree. This compares with a ComRes online poll at the weekend that…

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MORI has the SNP just ahead in Scotland

MORI has the SNP just ahead in Scotland

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There’s a new poll from Ipsos-MORI on the May 5th Scottish parliament elections which has the SNP just ahead of Labour – the first time this has happened. Compared with the last survey from the pollster the SNP is up 6 while Labour is down five. For the regional list voting intention MORI has: SNP 35%(+3) LAB 33%(-3): CON 13%(+1): LD 10%(+1):GRN 6% Until this point everything seemed to be pointing to Labour coming out on top even if they…

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Could today hasten the end for the House of Lords?

Could today hasten the end for the House of Lords?

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Are peers ready to continue the battle with the commons? Later this morning, at about 11am, the controversial voting and constituencies bill returns to the upper house after MPs last night overturned the changes that peers had sought to impose. Do their lordships now acquiesce and approve the bill as agreed in the commons or do they seek to continue the battle. If so they could stop the AV referendum taking place as planned on May 5th? For the legal…

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