What do you think will happen this year? With the new year just over a week old and with Oldham East on Thursday, it’s time to sharpen your punditry skills and make your predictions for what could be a choppy year in British politics. Entries close 7pm Friday 14th January As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If anyone would like to take part, the 2011 season is now underway – the Leaders & Finance game…
Both have the Tories well behind Still to come tonight are details of the Survation poll. The question is whether these numbers – the Populus 46/29/15 and the ICM 44/27/18 will have any impact on tactical voting in the final phase of the campaign. It is also interesting that Populus, which did name the candidates in the question have a a LD margin over the Tories that is a fair bit bigger than the ICM one. When we get the…
There are, we are told, two by-election polls coming out overnight but I can’t work out which pollster is carrying out the Sunday Telegraph one. ICM say it’s not them YouGov say their panel system means they can’t do single seat polls Ipsos-MORI say it’s not them ComRes say it’s not them The one poll we do know about is Survation which is being carried by one of the papers. The only other main pollster is Populus and I have…
< And what implications for the by-election? One of the most striking features of the opinion poll movements since the general election is the disparity between the performance of the two coalition partners. The Conservatives have never polled less than their election score of 37% with YouGov, although they have been a little lower with other firms. By contrast, the Lib Dems have lost close to two-thirds of theirs if the most recent YouGov survey is on the mark. Other...
Could there be more than one by-election poll? There’ve been a lot of rumours about amongst campaigners in Oldham East & Saddleworth that several by-election polls might be in the offing. One suggested that a YouGov OES survey was about to come out – a rumour that has been knocked on the head by the firm’s deputy head of political polling, Anthony Wells. Andrew Hawkins of ComRes, which has carried out surveys at other by-elections, tells me that his firm…
Is the former Labour MP almost a local? So the first of the former Labour MPs to face criminal charges over the MPs expenses, David Chaytor who used to sit for Bury North, has been given an eighteen month jail sentence after pleading guilty. During the case it was said that he’d “siphon off” public money he was not entitled to by providing false documents. His defence said he was was entitled to the money and said that he showed…
Spetember 25 2010 – the moment EdM wins the Labour leadership Is this why AV winners are not seen as being legitimate? Aside from the build-up to next Thursday’s OES by-election two things have struck me most during the first week back after the holidays – the kicking that Ed Miliband seems to be getting in the media and the reactions here on PB to the elections for our poster of the year. The common element to both is the…
Saddleworth News But what if yellows/blues are seen as having the best chance? I’m coming to the view that the single most important event in the final week of this campaign will be the opinion poll, now expected at the weekend, and whether it shows the Tories or the Lib Dems as being best placed to beat Labour. For the one reason why Labour are favourites in a seat which they won with 31.9% at the general election is that…