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Month: December 2010

MORI on how the three leaders are being perceived

MORI on how the three leaders are being perceived

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But was the poll as bad for EdM as first reported? One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that their polls are generally accompanied by a mass of data and analysis that go well beyond the standard voting intention questions. The above chart is from this weeks survey for Reuters and sets out how those sampled responded to a range of standardised questions about Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Miliband’s position on most of the measures is basically down to…

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Oldham E & Saddleworth – the opening prices

Oldham E & Saddleworth – the opening prices

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Oldham E & Saddleworth by-election betting LABOUR LIB DEMS TORIES Ladbrokes 1/7 5/1 10/1 William Hill 1/7 7/1 8/1 Victor Chandler 1/6 6/1 10/1 Smarkets 0.31/1 4.88/1 4.55/1 Betfair 1/5 7/2 10/1 From what I can see there are five current betting markets on the Old & Sad by election that takes place on January 13th. Labour is the heavy odds-on favourite in all of them though there is some variation. Be warned – getting bets of a reasonable size…

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Why are all parties scared of the Ainsworth plan?

Why are all parties scared of the Ainsworth plan?

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Is decriminalisation of drugs really irresponsible? Hasn’t the the most predictable and sad feature of this morning’s reaction to Bob Ainsworth’s ideas on drugs been the knee-jerk reaction of all the main parties? Ainsworth, who used to be in charge of drugs policy as a Home Office minister, is calling for the production and supply of drugs including cocaine to be officially regulated. He argues that the war on drugs has been “nothing but a disaster” and switching the trade…

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Welcome to the New Era: Campaign Day One

Welcome to the New Era: Campaign Day One

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Manchester Evening News How will the coalition operate in its first by-election? The headline in the Manchester Evening News says it all. The Lib Dems will be moving the old & Sad by-election writ today and a Tory prime minister accuses Labour of “running scared”. Clearly the decision to put convention to one side and for a non-incumbent party to be moving the writ suggests a high degree of co-operation between the coalition partners. For if Labour object the overwhelming…

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Richard Nabavi on Cameron’s musical chairs

Richard Nabavi on Cameron’s musical chairs

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Who gains when the music stops? One government proposal which has direct implications for the next GE is the reduction in the number of parliamentary constituencies, from 650 to 600.  Discussion of this proposal has mainly centred on the equalisation of constituency sizes, which Labour has curiously characterised as ‘gerrymandering’ because it will slightly reduce the pro-Labour distortion under the old boundaries. However, the impact at the next election will come not only from the equalisation of the sizes of…

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Is Old & Sad going to be on January 13th?

Is Old & Sad going to be on January 13th?

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What will the holiday season do to the campaign? The Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election was touched on during PMQs and this has sparked off a lot of speculation on the timing. Some reports suggest that the writ will be moved by the Lib Dems tomorrow which would make Thursday January 13th the big day. This is not an issue over which the speaker has control. If the writ is moved it has to be dealt with in the house…

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How long will EdM be dogged by the manner of his victory?

How long will EdM be dogged by the manner of his victory?

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Can his new PR team turn the media narrative around? The mail-pack featured above, from the GMB union to those of its members entitled to vote in Labour’s leadership election, played a pivotal role three months ago in winning the prize for the younger Miliband brother. It was developed for the GMB, UNISON and UNITE unions as part of a plan to get round a Labour party ban on candidates’ promotional materials being included in the voting packs for September’s…

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Lib Dems drop to 11 in first phone poll of the month

Lib Dems drop to 11 in first phone poll of the month

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Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Ipsos-MORI/ 12/12/10 38 39 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 17/10/10 39 36 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/09/10 37 37 15 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 And EdM takes a hit in his approval ratings We’ve have to wait a long time for it but the first non-YouGov poll of the month, from Ipsos-MORI, is just out and has the Lib Dems down to 11% – a share…

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