It’s 2/1 that he’ll step down before the election? The Politicalbetting All Pollsters Average (PAPA) – has moved overnight to CON 37.2: LAB 38.5: LD 12.5 . The changes have been caused by the latest YouGov daily poll putting the parties on 40/40/9 and an old poll dropping out of the calculation because it is now one month old. The Lib Dem share is by far the worst since the creation of the coalition and is just over half the…
Is it worth a long-term bet? I should make clear from the start that I’m not a betting man, but a couple of years ago I caught sight of the absurdly long odds on Scotland becoming independent by 2012, and my jaw dropped to the floor. If ever there was an example of a ‘value bet’, that surely had to be it. Scotland had just elected a nationalist government that was committed to holding an independence referendum within its term…
Is there any way that he can get the media on his side? After his media hammering over the past 24 hours I’m beginning to wonder whether Ed Miliband will last the course and be replaced, probably by Yvette Cooper, before the general election. Since yesterday morning there’s been one story after another bringing bad news for the Labour leadership. Even Nick Robinson at the officially impartial BBC got into the act by mocking Ed’s term “the squeezed middle” as…
Party Votes Cast % Votes Cast Seats Won Change Labour 11,541 32.56% 7 +3 Conservatives 10,367 29.25% 9 -3 Liberal Democrats 4,827 13.62% 1 -1 Independents 2,902 8.19% 3 Unchanged Green Party 2,849 8.04% 0 Unchanged Plaid Cymru 1,006 2.84% 2 +1 SNP 773 2.18% 0 Unchanged UKIP 420 1.19% 0 0 Others 756 2.13% 0 Unchanged GAINS and LOSSES Conservative GAINS: Lyth Valley on South Lakeland from Lib Dem Labour GAINS: Moredon on Swindon from Con, Coleridge on Cambridge…
A guest slot from Richard Nabavi Any government can be rocked by external events. The MPs’ expenses scandal and the banking crisis dominated much of Gordon Brown’s time in No 10. Whilst we don’t yet know what surprises lie in store for the present government, there is already one crisis which could be a big factor in determining the next election. That is the unfolding financial turmoil in the Eurozone. For the coalition, the big danger is that a recession,…
What’ll be the impact of Labour’s “old guard” saying NO? With less than six months to go before the referendum on electoral reform No to AV campaign has announced the backing of five of Labour’s old guard. All of them were cabinet ministers and all are familiar figures. Those opposed to change will be particularly pleased that former deputy Labour leader, Margaret Beckett, has agreed to become the president of the campaign and, no doubt, will a key public role…
Could it just increase the anger and violence? There’s been a strong defence by the Metropolitan police of their tactic of using what’s known as “kettling” yesterday in containing the fees protests in central London. The plan is simple – the demonstrators are trapped for many hours in order to prevent the possibility of mass attacks that could lead to violence and criminal damage on specific targets. Yesterday it was said that they were aiming for the Lib Dem offices…
Plato reflects on the ending of political careers Falling on your sword for the good of the Party has never been a popular career choice for an aspiring politician, but are our MPs any less honourable than their predecessors? Most careers ending in ignoble resignation fall into four categories – a tabloid sex scandal, money and favours, a massive gaffe or a visit from the boys in blue. Simple incompetence barely registers, as the cross party praise for Estelle Morris…