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Month: September 2010

Are EdM’s supporters just more fired up?

Are EdM’s supporters just more fired up?

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Is now the moment to get on the younger brother? After last night’s BBC Question Time leadership debate, in which all five acquitted themselves well, there are now almost no foreseeable events between now and the election closing. The big question is what’s going to happen in the betting? For currently the elder Miliband is the tight odds-on favourite while you can still get EdM at 1.94/1 on Betfair. The best traditional bookie price is 7/4. Those odds seem particularly…

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Can the final set-piece change the outcome?

Can the final set-piece change the outcome?

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..or have too many people already voted? Tonight we’ll see the final set-piece in Labour’s four and a half month long leadership election – the appearance of all five contenders in a special Question Time debate on BBC1. Has this come too late to make a difference? Maybe – because all the signs are that a large proportion of those eligible to vote got their ballots in early soon after they arrived at the start of the month. Last weekend’s…

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Did Michael Ashcroft bring good news for the Lib Dems?

Did Michael Ashcroft bring good news for the Lib Dems?

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Will LAB supporters still vote tactically for the yellows? Ever since the coalition was formed in May there’s been a widespread assumption that the many Labour supporters who voted tactically to support the Lib Dems in battles with the Tories will not do the same next time. This specific point has never been tested until now. But the data from the Michael Ashcroft-funded Populus poll of voters in the Sheffield Hallam and Eastleigh does provide some pointers. For as well…

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Labour draw level with Ipsos-MORI

Labour draw level with Ipsos-MORI

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Poll Date CON LAB LD LEAD Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 15/09/10 37 37 15 0 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 2 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 8 And the LDs move up a point What’s only the third MORI poll since the election is out today and has the red and blue teams neck and neck. On cuts Reuters report that most people, three in five, agree that they are necessary, but three-quarters believe it would be better to cut more slowly to…

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Was the Populus cuts question too ambitous?

Was the Populus cuts question too ambitous?

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How meaningful are responses to very long questions? We’ve now got the precise wording of the polling question that was read out over the telephone to 751 interviewees in this week’s Populus poll from the Times and which has been seized upon as evidence that there is little backing amongst the public for the government’s core strategy. “Which of the following statements do you most agree with? Britain has a severe debt crisis and this government thinks the country’s budget…

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What impact will this have on the next election?

What impact will this have on the next election?

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BBC News Will individual registration make Labour’s task harder? The news on the revised electoral registration arrangements to be put in place before the next general election might not sound particularly significant but it could make life that much harder for Labour at the next election. Until now the head of a household makes a list eligible voters each and does not have to provide ID for them. Now the plan is that by 2014, before the planned 2015 general…

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ComRes: 44pc of Labour voters say they just “don’t know”

ComRes: 44pc of Labour voters say they just “don’t know”

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Independent Can we ignore this latest poll? There’s what might appear to be good news for the beleaguered David Miliband campaign in a ComRes poll for the Indy this morning. The sample consisted of 1,597 people who had voted Labour at least once since 1992 and all the findings seem to favour the ex-foreign secretary. Across a range of questions such as “preferred candidate”,” best opposition leader”, and “best PM” the elder Miliband is beating his brother by a factor…

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