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Month: September 2010

Should you take the 3-1 against DM standing aside?

Should you take the 3-1 against DM standing aside?

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How difficult would it be for him to serve? After the extraordinary victory for Ed Miliband on Saturday the focus is now on his elder brother, David, and the role, if any, he would have in the new shadow cabinet. This is how the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour is reporting it: “Ed Miliband’s efforts to offer a new generation of leadership for Labour were overshadowed today by an emotional and political tug of war over whether his vanquished and shattered brother…

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Dilma Rousseff will be the next President of Brazil

Dilma Rousseff will be the next President of Brazil

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Wikimedia Commons Dan Hamilton revisits Brazil one week before the election This time next week Brazil’s 190 million citizens will choose their fourth directly-elected leader since the end of military rule in 1985 and a successor to the centre-left President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Given Brazil’s incredibly efficient system of electronic voting, results can be expected within an hour or so of the close of polls at around 23:00GMT. Voters in Brazil’s twenty six states will choose between centrist…

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How the YouGov poll did against the actual results

How the YouGov poll did against the actual results

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Party members YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YG Mili pref Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 Trade unionists YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round < YG Mili pref Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 12 12.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.2 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 14 8.5 0 0 MILIBAND, David 29 27.5 43...

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Will EdM take Labour back to Sept/Oct ’07 levels?

Will EdM take Labour back to Sept/Oct ’07 levels?

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Autumn 2007 polling Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sunday Times 16/11/07 41 35 13 YouGov/Telegraph 24/10/07 41 38 11 YouGov/Sunday Times 06/10/07 41 38 11 YouGov/Channel 4 04/10/07 36 40 13 YouGov/Telegraph 28/09/07 32 43 15 YouGov/Channel 4 25/09/07 33 44 13 Will they be at 40+ when he makes his 1st speech? Last night the News International daily poll from YouGov had CON 39%: LAB 38%: LD 15% – so the red team was just one point adrift. The big…

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Can anybody beat my 33-1 bet?

Can anybody beat my 33-1 bet?

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What was your betting story? The conclusion of Labour’s leadership election marks the end of a major betting event and something that we’ve been arguing about and punting on for more than three years. Thankfully, from my perspective, EdM came home and I’ve just spent a pleasurable half hour or so transferring my winnings into my bank account. I’d backed EdM at a wide range of prices over a year and the best bet was the 33/1 with Ladbrokes in…

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Why do Labour MPs have to vote publicly?

Why do Labour MPs have to vote publicly?

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Would a secret ballot have improved Ed’s mandate? It’s quite rare for any vote to be cast publicly in an election, except maybe when it’s on behalf of someone else.  As party members have their own vote in Labour leadership elections, that explanation doesn’t apply so for the party to make its MPs preferences public is unusual.  It’s not something the other parties do, for example. What it does do is add pressure to vote in the way an MP would like to be…

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Labour leadership continuation thread

Labour leadership continuation thread

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Ed beats David by a fraction on the Affiliates section So, Ed wins it – just – with the affiliates section proving the crucial factor and the late rumours for DM were just that and may even have been a case of talk following betting rather than vice-versa. Ed Balls beat Abbott and Burnham for third place, which with a reasonable showing in the MPs section should reinforce his claim for a top job in the shadow cabinet. On a personal…

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The Labour leadership result thread

The Labour leadership result thread

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Has Ed snatched it or did David hold on? What looks like being the closest Labour leadership contest since voting was opened up to the membership finally draws to a close in Manchester this afternoon, with the result expected to be announced around 4.40pm. Until the very final days of the more than four months of campaigning, David Miliband’s position as favourite went more-or-less unchallenged, with his odds at times implying a better than 80% chance of winning. That all…

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