Are EdM’s supporters just more fired up?
Is now the moment to get on the younger brother?
After last night’s BBC Question Time leadership debate, in which all five acquitted themselves well, there are now almost no foreseeable events between now and the election closing.
The big question is what’s going to happen in the betting? For currently the elder Miliband is the tight odds-on favourite while you can still get EdM at 1.94/1 on Betfair. The best traditional bookie price is 7/4. Those odds seem particularly good value in the light of the YouGov poll published at the weekend.
My assessment is that it’s a 50-50 choice between DM and EdM so the younger brother is the value bet by some margin and I have been betting that way.
Some of the numbers in the table below have been referred to on PB already but I though I would set them out in a table because they could be hugely significant. Just compare the voting intention (VI) shares with what those who had already voted told YouGov.
The VI shares include those who had voted. The fieldwork for the poll took place from September 6th to September 10th.
| Candidate | Members VI | Members voted | Unionists VI | Unionists voted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Miliband | 38 | 36 | 29 | 25 |
| Ed Miliband | 31 | 36 | 36 | 43 |
| Andy Burnham | 10 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| Diane Abbott | 11 | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| Ed Balls | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
These are even better for the younger brother given the other main finding in the poll on how well he was doing with second preferences.
There hasn’t been any polling in the MP/MEP section of the electoral college but LeftFootForward has been keeping a tally of declarations – and here David Miliband is in the lead. The big question is where the 2nd/3rd/4th preferences of Burnham/Balls/Abbot supporters will go.
In the aftermath of the debate William Hill was offering 7/1 against Ed Miliband being Prime Minister in the next five years. It’s not of their website yet but looks a good bet.