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Month: August 2010

Will this be the week the government’s ratings go negative?

Will this be the week the government’s ratings go negative?

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Ipsos-MORI Will the cross-over happen by Day 100? This is a week that’s going to be full of symbolism for the coalition government. Firstly in midweek it will reach the 100 day mark which is always a point for reflection and assessment and already we have seen the media using the peg of this milestone to start looking back. Secondly David Cameron is on holiday in Cornwall leaving his deputy, the Lib Dem Nick Clegg, notionally “in charge” whatever that…

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Will the coalition hit the winning Miliband hard from day one?

Will the coalition hit the winning Miliband hard from day one?

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Have they learnt the lesson of Cameron’s easy ride? Interesting piece from the Speccie’s James Forsyth in the Mail on Sunday on the coalition’s attack plans for when Dave or EdM is elected on the afternoon of September 25th. He writes: “This desire to launch an instant strike is a product of David Cameron’s own experience. When he became Tory leader in 2005, Brown wanted to go for him straight away but Tony Blair overruled him, arguing that they needed…

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Is Prezza right to call Milburn a “collaborator”?

Is Prezza right to call Milburn a “collaborator”?

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SkyNews Should Labour figures be working with the coalition? As expected there’s been a furious response from ex-Labour deputy, John Prescott to the overnight news that former arch-Blairite cabinet minister, Alan Milburn is possibly going to return to government to act as “Social Mobility Czar” – whatever that means. Prezza Twittered: “So after Field & Hutton, Milburn becomes the 3rd collaborator. They collaborated to get Brown OUT. Now collaborating to keep Cameron IN” For the three Labour figures named were…

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Do we over-estimate the public’s interest in politics?

Do we over-estimate the public’s interest in politics?

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Watch this interview with Labour’s Deborah Mattinson Earlier this evening I watched this BBC Parliament Channel interview with former Labour pollster Deborah Mattinson. She was at the heart of the party for many years and her insights about the public’s view of politicians, politics and the political process are a good reminder to us all. For there’s a massive disconnect between what goes on at Westminster and the lives of the vast majority of voters. This is something that we…

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Is Whelan risking his job by backing Balls?

Is Whelan risking his job by backing Balls?

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Why’s UNITE’s man not supporting EdM? The big development in Labour’s leadership battle before everybody went on holiday was the overwhelming decision by UNITE’s political committee to give its backing to Ed Miliband. But today, in the Mail, the political director of that union, the loyal Brownite , Charlie Whelan makes no secret of his continuing backing for Ed Balls. This has prompted PB’s Labour observer in the north east, Henry G Manson to drop me an email: He writes:…

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How much bottle does Dave have to make sensitive cuts?

How much bottle does Dave have to make sensitive cuts?

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Will the free milk U-turn make next time much harder? Last weekend, the government performed a U-turn so quickly that it may as well have spun round on the spot. Within a few hours of a junior minister being seen to propose scrapping the remaining universal free milk provision for under fives, restricting it to the neediest and saving £50m, Downing Street had squashed the idea. In one sense, it was very probably the right move. £50m is less than…

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The post general election polling weightings

The post general election polling weightings

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Party ID/PV YouGov ID ICM past vote Populus PV ComRes PV CON 28.5 25 26 24 LAB 32.5 21 21 20 LD 12 16 19 16 OTH 3 7 7 7 NONE/DK/Rfsd 24 31 28 31 How the four firms try to get “balanced samples” I’ve put the above table together as a reference point for whenever the contentious subject of political weighting comes up. YouGov, ICM, Populus and ComRes all seek to ensure that their samples are politically as…

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Will Dave’s “more sunshine” plan win the day?

Will Dave’s “more sunshine” plan win the day?

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How will Scotland react in the run-up to next year’s elections? Several of the papers are giving coverage on this August morning to the PM’s backing to moving the clocks forward an hour throughout the year so people can enjoy longer evenings. There would be two options – to switch to the time zone which is almost standard throughout the EU – an hour ahead – with the clocks changing as usual in April and October or for there to…

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